Coding of Crude Oil a la Bankole

Dimeji Bankole, the Nigerian Speaker of the House of Representatives’ suggestion that Nigeria should consider coding its crude oil at face value seems a rational one, except that he did not quite explain how this should be done. While chemical “coding”, in the context Bankole seems to refer, is possible and actually used to distinguish batches of certain chemical products through the use of additives to serve as chemical markers. It is used usually in highly purified substances that have identical chemical and physical characteristics regardless of their source of origin.

Crude oil as it turns out have different chemical and physical characteristics unique to their source. In fact, no two wells anywhere in the world have been known to exhibit the same chemical and physical characteristics. Physical characteristics such as spectrophotometry, rheology, sedimentation rate, specific gravity, even color and organoleptics may be employed along with chemical characteristics such as fractional component assay, gas chromatography, HPLC, voltammetry, NMR, Pyrolysis, mass spectrometry etc as analytical and assay methods. All these are enough to pinpoint not only the country of origin of the crude oil, but the exact well from which it was drilled.

Bankole was either shooting off the cuff in the characteristic ignorance that pervades the Nigerian body politic, or was setting the stage for a future multi-million dollar crude oil additive contract for some of his friends waiting in the wings to execute yet another scam to game the system and loot the coffers of Nigeria.  Besides, what is the cost of adding this so called "code", its decoding and other attendant administative costs?  Assuming this is possible, what is the cost/ benefit analysis?  Any leader worth his salt should be capable of critical reasoning and Bankole fails to exhibit this with his asinine suggestion.

The Importance of Being Earnest

The importance of being earnest is the only reason why I try to tell the other side of the story to the bunch of people that make up the Nigerian Polity and their cohort.  Someone just tried to hijack my blog.  I suspect it is the Nigerian Government trying to shut me down, but their low-tech approach is no match for someone so tech savvy as myself. i will continue to blog about the truth and injustice perpetrated by the nefarious cabal of clowns that rule Nigeria.  My brethren and sisters make no mistake I shall blog as is true to my name until the dawn of time or my last breath whichever comes first.  Thence, stay tuned.   Veracity

Obama visits Ghana, Snubs Nigeria

Nigerians lament the choice of Ghana as President Barack Obama’s first port of call on the highly popular first Black American President’s first official visit to Sub-Saharan Africa. Ghana, which enjoys relative peace and stability, seems a natural choice over the chaotic and fractious situations in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, other countries deemed to have been considered for the historic visit.

Nigeria, which touts itself as the giant of Africa has been stifled and plagued with civil strife and unrests in the Niger Delta and still struggles with its democratic process with many of its public officials indicted in gross acts of corruption and various numerous crimes. During the presidential campaign of Mr. Obama, the chairman of the Nigerian Security and Exchange Commission was indicted for illegally collecting what was sold as contributions to aid the Obama candidacy despite the clearly spelled out disclaimer on the Obama website that foreign donations were not eligible.

The apparent snubbing of Nigeria by the Obama administration is appropriate. Obama should not be rubbing shoulders with the criminals and thugs that make the majority of the Nigerian public officials and politicians.

Yar’Adua Grows a Spine on the Niger Delta Crisis

It appears the Yar’Adua government is taking its cue from Mahinda Rajapaksa, the Sri Lankan President whose military has just decimated the once feared LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) aka -Tamil Tigers, the terrorist separatist movement that held sway in northern Sri Lanka for 26 years under the leadership of Velupillai Prabhakaran, who was killed in the government onslaught.

Like MEND and other Niger Delta militant groups, the LTTE started off as a self-determination movement for the cause of an independent Tamil Nation in 1976 and soon metamorphosed into one of the most violent and ruthless terrorist groups in the world. The LTTE engaged in bombings of government, commercial and tourism infrastructure. Kidnapping and murder of opposition voices, extortion, intimidation and high profile assassination of political figures in South East Asia was their forte. The LTTE pioneered suicide bombing as a tactic and invented the suicide belt, which was used by a female Tamil Tiger in the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Ghandi, then former Prime Minister of India opposed to the LTTE cause.

Mr. Yar’Adua should pursue this campaign to conclusion, but must prevent it from escalating into a huge humanitarian crisis. Provisions should be made for the evacuation of innocent civilians from the conflict zones. A ceasefire for 48 to 72 hours accompanied by a massive information campaign by radio, air-dropped-flyers and television announcing the ceasefire window and urging the evacuation of civilians from the conflict zones should do. Wide media coverage should be given to the evacuation process and the militants sternly warned against holding back any civilian population they might want to use as hostages or human shields as the Tamil Tigers did, and still in the end, were defeated.

The fact of the matter is that true liberation results only from peaceful resistance movements. Mahatma Ghandi freed India from the British through this method just as Martin Luther King won civil rights for African Americans through his non-violent civil rights movement. Even the Great Nelson Mandela won his battle against apartheid only after he renounced violence. There is a good reason why the ANC rules in South Africa today and not the Inkatha Freedom Fighters of Mongosuthu Buthelezi. The terrorists in Palestine make it difficult to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because of the compelling argument of insecurity that they provide the Israeli authorities by their terrorist actions.

Were MEND and its ilk Niger Delta militant groups legitimate, they would recognize how out-of-date nihilist separatist terrorist movements such as theirs’ are. A critical look at these Niger Delta militant groups reveals that they are but only the visible element of what is indeed a very large criminal industry involving the militants themselves, gunrunners, hostage negotiators, pirates, “oil bunkerers”, politicians and corrupt government officials of agencies charged with supervision of the oil industry and development of the Niger Delta. None of them really has the interest of the locals at heart.

They murder moderate locals who seek a non-violent approach, steal crude oil by breaking oil pipelines, in the processes degrading the environment through oil spillages. They use the ransoms they extract to finance profligate life-styles - Asari Dokubo, former Ijaw Youth Congress boss, and MEND sponsor, owns a couple of grand mansions in Abuja and Port Harcourt, a fleet of luxury cars and runs a harem of three wives and several concubines. The Yar’Adua government would do the present day generation of Nigerians and posterity a world of good by routing out these militant groups now before they metamorphose into larger and intractable terrorist organizations like those in the Middle East. Yar'Adua should eschew political correctness (in the Nigerian context) and do every Nigerian a favour and excise this cancer that is the Niger Delta militant movement organizations.

President Yar’Adua’s Bid for 2011

There are rumours making the rounds about President Umaru Yar'Adua's bid for re-election in 2011. To justify re-election should not the incumbent be seen to have presided over some economic growth and improved developmental indices? Ever since Yar'Adua was foisted on Nigerians by the Obasanjo regime in 2007, the Yar'Adua led government has presided over the worst slow-down of government and a reversal of some the good deeds of the Obasanjo administration.

Nigeria's foreign debt is said to have begun a steady climb again after the debt forgiveness of 2005/2006 by the Paris and London Clubs negotiated by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, then Minister of Finance in the Obasanjo administration. The crisis in the Niger Delta continues to escalate so much so that Nigeria lost an estimated 6 and 8 billion dollars in oil revenue in 2007 and 2008 respectively. The activities of these criminal gangs from the Niger Delta have spread to other cities in Nigeria including the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, where they have brazenly operated with impunity. The security situation is dire to say the least and the law enforcement and judiciary systems are up for sale to the highest bidder. Ex-governors and other politicians indicted for gross acts of graft walk free and act as the closest confidants to Yar'Adua and his cohort while stellar law enforcement agents of the ilk of Nuhu Ribadu and model ministers of the mould of El-Rufai are persecuted unduly.

Shame on those Nigerians who are seeking the return of such an ineffectual President as Yar'Adua. The man has not championed any policy or development since he assumed office in May 2007. He is the most lackluster and inept leader Nigeria has ever had. Even the evil Abacha championed some policies and development (PTF, BPE and failed banks tribunals to mention a few). It seems as if Yar'Adua is only in the news when he goes to Germany or the Middle East for a medical checkup or vacation. It is as if the man is on a perpetual vacation, while the country which he took an oath to govern is left to the dogs and hobbled by his gang of purloiners. In fact, it would probably be better off for Nigeria if the man took a permanent vacation today and not return to Aso Rock. Being so inept, he should resign and hand over to somebody more dynamic rather than seek a second term in 2011.

2008 - Another Wasted Year for the African Continent

As the year 2008 draws to an end, most people the world over are taking stock of the past year, assessing what was done right and what was done wrong. In the United States of America, there is an air of enthusiasm as the citizens are excited at the historic election in November of the first African American President, Mr. Barack Obama, whose inauguration comes up on January 20, 2009. Even as America experiences its deepest recession since the Second World War, there is palpable optimism and high expectations of the ability of President Elect, Barack Obama and his formidable team to turn the tide on the economic downturn.

If the optimism and excitement holds up all through 2009, America, and indeed the world may emerge from the recession sooner than later. After all, a significant determinant of economic fortune is consumer sentiment. A positive sentiment usually means more demand, which often jump-starts production to increase supply to meet the demand. Of course all these require an able team to midwife with delicate precision, and the overall sentiment is if any team can achieve this, it is that being assembled by President Elect Obama. Such is the magic of the man.

Across the Atlantic, on the continent that bore the man who sired Barack Obama, the sentiments are just as optimistic and enthusiastic. Obama’s unlikely story and eventual peaceful election is iconic of what the ideal should be, even for Africans. Obama symbolizes the hero in many an African folktale that saves the day and leads his people to redemption, something which most Africans desperately need to be rid of their tyrants. All Africans (on the continent and in Diaspora) should be proud of this fine young man and his achievements, as he has forever demystified age-old racial stereotypes and low expectations of the black man. In Obama’s word, “Yes we can.” Blacks can be anything they set their minds, all it takes is hard work and a people and system that are fair and conscientious. But there stops the import to Africans of the Obama ascension to the US presidency.

Mr. Obama just happens to be an African American who was elected to be the President of the United States of America come, January 20, 2009. His primary responsibility and allegiance is to the American people and its interests. Those interests may well be stability in Africa among others and the Obama administration, no doubt, would do anything in its power to achieve this if the American people so desire it. But in the final analysis, the responsibility for the stability and prosperity of African countries rests squarely on their leadership and citizenry. Whether it be the genocidal junta of Omar Al-Bashir engaged in the ethnic cleansing by the Janjaweed in Darfur, Sudan, or the maniacal and demented regime of 84-year old Robert Mugabe in his tyrannical bid to hold on to power in Zimbabwe, impervious to the pleas of the international community and the consequential ruin his sit-tight posture is wreaking on his country, the responsibility is squarely Africans’.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Ugandan and Rwandan backed, Laurent Nkunda-led National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP) rebel army is in a civil war with the Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe backed Joseph Kabila DR Congo government forces. This is a war involving six of the poorest nations of the world. Granted, Namibia has a GDP per capita of about $5,200, making it one of the richer African countries, but it has an HIV prevalence rate of about 21% in adults, one of the highest in the world. The other five countries have equally high HIV prevalence rates and some of the worst socioeconomic indices in the world, yet they squander their meager resources on a complicated and fratricidal war.

In Nigeria, while there is no full-blown war, the situation in the Niger Delta is just as dire. Rogue pirates and criminals parading themselves as environmental militants are on the prowl kidnapping, killing, extorting, sabotaging, blowing up oil installations and illegally bunkering crude oil with impunity while the corrupt and ineffectual government of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua sits pat. With the potential of being one of the richest countries in the world on account of its rich human and natural resources, Nigeria has been hobbled by its deeply entrenched level of corruption that guarantees it a spot in the top-tier of the most corrupt countries in the world each of the 15 years Transparency International has published the corruption perception index (cpi).

The story in South Africa is not much better, only earlier this past summer in May, South African youths took to the streets to maim, rape and murder non South-African black Africans, particularly those from Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, Somalia and Ethiopia, who they erroneously blamed for taking up their jobs and using up government resources that would otherwise have been used to benefit South Africans. Many believed this rash of xenophobia was wrought and stoked by Mr. Jacob Zuma, the African National Congress (ANC) president and putative successor to the Kgalema Motlanthe led government when elections are held in 2009.

These are some of the sad tales of the African continent that bore Mr. Obama. The same blood that courses the veins of these lot flows through those of the President Elect. Yes indeed Africans are ecstatic at Mr. Obama’s election and even more vociferous about this are all the despotic and corrupt misanthropes in government all throughout the African continent (except perhaps Mr. Mugabe who hates everything western). It boggles the mind that these purloiners in power can recognize merit and a system and democracy that works while at the same time toil very hard to entrench chaos and turmoil in their countries in their bid to self-enrich and hold tenaciously on to power. To paraphrase Mr. Obama’s controversial pastor, Jeremiah Wright of Trinity Church, Chicago: “…not God bless African leaders, it's God damn African leaders…”

Ribadu’s Demotion – Yar’Adua’s Betrayal

The demotion exercise supposedly carried out by the Police Service Commission which affected the former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Nuhu Ribadu is clearly a vindictive assault on the fine officer, Ribadu whose stellar performance at the EFCC not only gained international respect for Nigeria in its fight against corruption, but gave hope to the millions of Nigerians who have been betrayed by their leadership, if only for the brief period of time.

This goes to prove that Yar’Adua is a lame duck of a President whose strings are being pulled by the various corrupt elements that helped to bring him to power and continue to influence the way things are run in Nigeria. Under Ribadu's leadership, the EFCC was able to investigate, prosecute and secure conviction of the perpetrators of one of the biggest fraud cases the world has ever seen (the Banco Noroeste case involving Emmanuel Nwude, Nzeribe Okoli and Amaka Anajemba). Also, for the first time, a sitting Inspector General of Police was indicted and convicted for corruption.

Indeed, so effective was the EFCC that the saying in Nigerian public offices was "The fear of Ribadu is the beginning of Wisdom." What made Ribadu so effective was the independence granted the agency by the Obasanjo administration. Even though Ribadu was an Assistant Commissioner of Police when he assumed office, his EFCC activities were reported directly to the presidency and not the Inspector General of Police. Removing this bureaucratic layer made the EFCC a highly effective organization, especially as it did not have to get approvals or orders from higher ranking police officers who are renowned for their high degree of corruption and sometimes were in complicity with the criminals under investigation.

This independence and attendant power bestowed on Ribadu officer bred in the higher ranked police officers jealousy, cavil and disdain. Snide remarks, accusations of selective justice and misconduct were rife. When the Yar’Adua government came into power, these police officers along with the criminal elements the EFCC was investigating (amongst whom were several state governors known to be instrumental to the Yar’Adua election to the presidency) increased their pressure on Yar’Adua, complaining about gross abuse of power by the EFCC. Yar’Adua bucked and Ribadu was pushed out of the commission under the guise of being sent on an advanced management course at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS). Eventually, Ribadu was removed as EFCC Chairman.

Yar’Adua makes a big mistake by allowing the demotion. If anything, for the fact that Ribadu performed excellently at the EFCC, he should be exempt from the demotion, assuming there is any truth to the rationale being given for the exercise. The symbolism of this is that Yar’Adua is in cahoots with the various criminal elements that continue to bog down the Nigerian political landscape. Also, it confirms the lack of vision and ineptitude of Yar’Adua as a president.

Yar’Adua has nothing to show for the two-years plus he has been in power. The militancy in the Niger-Delta has escalated several folds, diminishing Nigeria’s oil production by up to 25% as the president’s brother heads the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). Electric power generation is at its worst in 45 years, inflation is rife, crime rate has escalated, and there are food shortages and long lines at the petrol stations. The only difference between the Yar’Adua government and the Abacha junta is that Sergeant Rogers and other Al Mustafa goons are not on the prowl killing perceived enemies of the state, but with the growing army of political assassins, Niger-Delta militants and other criminal gangs, Yar’Adua does not need Al Mustafa’s goons to achieve an even higher degree of mayhem than the evil Abacha. At least during the Abacha regime, the Niger-Delta was not as dangerous as it is now. The evil General knew how to curb criminal militancy and had an independent mind, something Yar’Adua seems to be lacking amongst other leadership traits.

Nigerian Ex-Governors Soup it out in EFCC Detention Cells

The recent arrest and subsequent arraignment in court of some ex-governors of the immediate past administration by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is a culmination of the much awaited show down between the commission and the indicted governors. So far the ex-governors picked up include Uzor Kalu (Abia State), Jolly Nyame (Taraba State), Saminu Turaki (Jigawa State) and Joshua Dariye (Plateau State). Chimaroke Nnamani (Enugu State) and Ayodele Fayose (Ekiti State) have been declared wanted and would soon be picked up. While Nnamani is hold up in the National Hospital Abuja undergoing treatment for what appears to be a specious and convenient ailment, Fayose’s whereabouts is unknown.

It is laudable of the EFCC to make good its promise to the Nigerian people of prosecuting these indicted ex-governors. While in office, under the protection of immunity conferred on them by virtue of their offices, many of these ex-governors had dared the EFCC to prosecute them. Loud-mouth boasts of how wealthy they were before assumption of office and how no one could do arrest them were made by many. Kalu was reported as having boasted in his characteristic crassness and bad grammar to have single-handedly bankrolled the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), insinuating that he was untouchable. “If the PDP was a company, I would own 70%.” (sic) – he is reported to have boasted. Now that they are out of office and have been stripped of the immunity protection of the office they are running scared, feigning ailments and crying like little girls who have lost their dolls.

Saminu Turaki’s cases particularly disheartening, being indicted for misappropriating about 36 billion Naira. This works out to an embezzlement rate of about 375 million Naira monthly, of the 8 years Turaki was in power in Jigawa State. Kalu is currently being arraigned on a 3 billion Naira embezzlement charge, but this may grow to as much as 59 billion Naira, the total amount for which the former Abia state governor is being investigated. Jolly Nyame, who is purportedly a man of the cloth (he is a reverend), has admitted to gross acts of corruption (1.6 billion Naira so far) and offered to return the stolen monies for some form of amnesty. Joshua Dariye, who is also indicted in the UK on money laundry charges linked directly to the EFCC investigation stands accused of embezzling several hundreds of millions of Naira in his care while he was governor of Plateau state.

Chimaroke Nnamani has requested to have his 5.6 billion Naira embezzlement indictment transferred to Federal High Court number 10 in Lagos in what appears to be a delay tactic, but that notwithstanding would only be postponing the judgment day as the evidence against him appears very strong. From his purported sick-bed in Abuja, Nnamani bleats some redundant “I am being persecuted” rhetoric, albeit trite and ineffectual, in his wishful bid for vindication.

These six ex-governors who are currently being prosecuted by EFCC make up only but a minority fraction of ex-governors who should be prosecuted. Bola Tinubu (Lagos), Peter Odili (Rivers), James Ibori (Delta), Lucky igbenedion (Edo), Abubakar Audu (Kogi) are some of the ex-governors that are being investigated by the EFCC. It is only when the full complement of ex-governors involved in corrupt self-enrichment, embezzlement and other financial crimes have been brought to book, that the EFCC would rightfully deserve all the praises it has garnered locally and internationally. It would also quell allegations of selective persecution, and rumours of a pact purportedly made by Ibori, Igbenedion and Odili with Yar’Adua for the former three to cede the PDP presidential ticket nomination to the latter in exchange for amnesty from prosecution by the EFCC. It appears Yar'Adua seeks to prove his independence from the OBJ led cabal as evident in his recent ministerial picks. If this is true, then we would sooner be seeing other erring ex-governors in the holding cells of the EFCC - Sweet Justice at last for the millions of hapless Nigerians whose lives have been nothing but a living hell by the criminal acts of these thieving ex-governors and their cronies.

Three-Year-Old Tot Kidnapped in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Last week’s kidnapping of three-year old Margaret Hill in Port Harcourt by a so-called Niger Delta Militant group gives patent lucidity to the extent of decadence and depravity of the criminal organizations prowling the Nigerian Niger Delta enshrouded in the dubious cloak of environmentalism and freedom fighting. The lukewarm and conciliatory approach of the Obasanjo government in past 8 years in handling the Niger Delta crisis has done nothing but to embolden these criminals and spurned several tens, possibly hundreds of criminal gangs who prowl the region maiming, kidnapping, disrupting oil production and extorting ransoms from the oil companies, government and private citizens.

Often, these ransoms are negotiated through intermediary negotiators, who in many cases, are in cahoots with the criminal militant groups and are just a component of the larger organized criminal industry. What exists now is an efficient criminal industry complete with symbiotic relationships between arms dealers, pirates, illegal oil bunkerers, kidnappers, negotiators and criminal politicians. Granted, not all negotiators and politicians are in cahoots with these criminal groups, but it would be difficult to make a case in the contrary for many of them. For example, the impeached former governor of Bayelsa state, Alamieyeseigha was known to have retained the services of MEND and other militant groups while he was governor to keep his political opponents in check in return for several millions of Naira (labeled security vote) paid out to these militant groups.

Indeed, Alamieyeseigha’s impeachment may have been partly responsible for the explosion of militancy in the Niger Delta. With their benefactor incarcerated, and government’s unresponsiveness to their demands for his release, these groups stepped up their activities in pursuit of other avenues for money. Kidnapping, bunkering and piracy came easy particularly as they were left unchecked by the Obasanjo government either by the lack of political foresight, attitudinal apathy to the plight of the Nigerian polity or a confused and convoluted bid to be politically correct.

The Yar’Adua government faces a Herculean job to undo the damage done by his predecessor’s years of inept management of the Niger Delta crisis. One can only imagine the anguish and grief the Hill family must be going through with their toddler daughter’s kidnapping. This is as good as any time for all well-meaning Nigerians to stop being tongue-in-cheek and out rightly condemn the despicable actions of these so-called Niger Delta militants. The Yar’Adua government should do all it can to ensure that the toddler, Margaret is returned to her parents unharmed, and promptly too. And after this is done, not only should the perpetrators be hunted down like the dogs that they are, but all other criminal Niger Delta militant groups should be brought to book for theirs is a criminal cause dubiously enshrouded in the legitimate cloak of environmentalism.

If the Yar’Adua government’s actions in the past couple of weeks are predictors of its future posture then it may well be that Yar’Adua seeks to pursue the “head-in-the-sand” posture of his predecessor, indicated by his release of indicted secessionist Niger Delta militant leader Asari Dokubo. It appears the charges of treason have been dropped against Dokubo, in return, Yar’Adua is paid back with the Margaret Hill kidnapping.

President Yar’Adua’s Sham Ministerial Nominees – a Putrid Parade of Purloiners

The manner in which the new president of Nigeria has chosen to nominate members of his ministerial cabinet is a sign of things to come. It is alleged that he has given the job of ministerial nominations to the newly elected governors of the PDP won states and as a result has had eight former governors nominated for appointment by their successor protégées.

Against this backdrop, it is evident that President Yar’Adua has decided to perpetuate the decadence of the "old brigade," particularly as names of ex-governors of inglorious repute such as Ibori and Udenwa are being touted for appointment. The way ministerial appointments work in most civilized societies is to seek out the most qualified persons in terms of experience, outlook, values and competence to head public ministries and agencies. Rather, Yar’Adua’s approach is a putrid parade of purloiners. Many of these folks are alleged to have been under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commissions for gross acts of graft while they were governors. Many were wholesale abusers of human rights and flouters of court orders. Lesser allegations than these have been known to end people’s political careers in more developed societies.

It is no secret that Yar’Adua’s nomination for the PDP presidential ticket hinged heavily on the lobbying efforts of James Ibori and Lucky Igbinedion, erstwhile governors of Delta and Edo states respectively. Perhaps it is to fulfill a quid-pro-quo agreement that Yar’Adua seeks to reward Ibori with a ministerial post. Lucky Igbinedion (suspected murderer of Francis Ida) too might sooner be rewarded with a plum parastatal chairmanship or Ambassadorial post.

If the Yar’Adua administration is to gain legitimacy in Nigeria, and indeed the international community, and truly make a difference and liberate Nigeria from the claws of corruption and mediocrity, it would be better served not to engage any of these ex-governors and other persons of inglorious repute in any capacity in the administration. Yar'Adua should seek to appoint men and women of proven calibre, intellect and integrity like Nasir El Rufai, Dora Akiyuli, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Nuhu Ribadu and not ones of proven mediocrity, corruption and ignominy such as the nominee ex-governors being touted.

Letter to President Yar’Adua

Dear Mr. President,

Congratulations upon your inauguration and swearing in as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. As you know, for the next few months, perhaps years, your government will be regarded as being in the penumbra of the Obasanjo regime given the situation that brought you into office. Against this you must toil to carve out a unique identity for yourself and administration. To do this, you must choose wisely your vision and the folks in your cabinet to drive this vision.

Dare I suggest that you must focus on these three things amongst other things – (a) Security, (b) Rule of Law and (c) Economic development.

Security – As you know, the most pressing issue facing Nigeria today is that of security. The situation in the Niger Delta in particularly dire, with the spate of kidnapping, murder and other criminal acts perpetrated by the so-called Niger Delta militants, who claim to be fighting the cause of environmental degradation in the region. Granted, there are grave environmental issues and injustice meted out to the indigenes of the Niger Delta, but these Nihilist militants it seems perpetrate their nefarious acts with self-serving intent as is evident in the many ransoms they demand of the government and oil companies in exchange for their staff abducted by these militants.

Mr. President, my suggested solution, which apparently fell on the deaf ears of your predecessor, is to go at this problem with the entire arsenal at your disposal, and that includes – negotiation, intelligence, developmental programs and military incursion. Standing at akimbo and adopting the “head in the sand” posture of Obasanjo only worsens the situation as it not only emboldens the criminal and rogue elements in the Niger Delta, but also breeds some “legitimacy” in the chaos. A well kitted and trained force of 10,000 should be enough to take care of this.

This might appear expensive in the beginning, as it would require the investment of at least a couple of billions of dollars to develop such a force, but it beats the estimated $6 - $8 billion lost last year to the nefarious activities of these criminals. Oil holds such a strategic importance not only to Nigeria but to its Western allies, particularly the United States which derives about 9% of its oil needs from Nigeria. Mr. Yar’Adua, the US will only be too happy to help you clean up the mess in the Niger Delta if only you ask.

Rule of Law – Mr. President, your predecessor, Obasanjo made some half-hearted attempt to achieve this. While he gets kudos for instituting the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and by all means you should keep this stellar agency, Obasanjo appeared to be partisan and selective in his application of the rule of law. Some people appeared untouchable if they enjoyed the patronage of Obasanjo or the PDP. For example, that illiterate thug in Anambra state, Chris Uba should have been made to face the full weight of the law when he organized the kidnapping of the Anambra state governor, Chris Ngige in 2005. Lamidi Adedibu, the cantankerous murderous leprechaun in Ibadan should have been arrested for the various criminal unrests he instigated and criminal possession of INEC machines and materials. By letting these and other beneficiaries of his patronage break the law unscathed, Obasanjo perverted justice and deepened the average Nigerian’s mistrust for the rule of law to the point of hopelessness and utter disdain, driving people to take law into their own hands.

Mr. Yar’Adua, correcting this perception by the impartial administration of justice and restoring the Nigerian’s faith in the rule of law is the only way your government would stand a chance. Do not don the crude vindictive garb of your predecessor, let the law take its course, and be quick to right wrongs as soon as they are discovered.

Economic Development – In its 47^th year since independence, Nigeria is still one of the poorest countries in the world, despite her huge potential. Few countries in the world have the human and natural resources of Nigeria, yet Nigeria lags behind these less endowed nations because of years of perennial mediocre and rogue governments, that have mismanaged and systematically plundered the little wealth accruing to the country through the oil industry, while stupidly neglecting other sectors of the economy.

As the price of oil soars to record high levels, and would likely continue to do so for the next decade or more, Nigerian stands at the cusp of an opportunity to turn its fortune around. This it can do only through good governance that is committed, accountable and able to develop and execute developmental programs and systems which will improve infrastructural and social amenities that will engender economic development.

Mr. Yar’Adua, yours is a great responsibility and the sooner you get at it with the right team and inspirational, visionary leadership, the sooner you will be able to make a difference and justify your title as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Be decisive, wise and bold in all that you do in your executive capacity. Think Nigeria first, not PDP, unlike your predecessor and you will be fine.

Good Luck!

Dariye – Supreme Court’s Pronouncement Proves the Judiciary’s Independence

The Supreme Court’s upholding of the Federal Court of Appeal’s ruling of the reinstatement of Dariye as governor of Plateau State based on his unconstitutional impeachment hints at the much-desired independence of the judiciary from the legislative and executive arms of government.

In as much as Dariye has been indicted for the perpetration of ignominious acts, namely embezzlement, money laundering and international bail jumping, the fact that his impeachment was effected by only 8 members of a 24-member house legislature nullifies the process and therefore renders the impeachment void. No matter how strong the evidence is against him, Dariye could only have been constitutionally impeached by a two-third majority of the house, that is, by a vote of at least 16 members of the 24-member house. This however was difficult to achieve, given the choke hold Dariye had on the members of the house by their complicity in the wholesale acts of graft pervading the Plateau State government and compounded by the defection of 14 members from their party (PDP), therefore automatically losing their seats.

As alluded to in previous posts on the NigerianPolity.blogspot.com blog, the right thing to do would have been for INEC to declare the seats of the cross-carpeting legislators vacant and conduct run-off elections to fill them. With the full complement of the house in place, the constitutionality of Dariye’s impeachment would not have arisen.

That Dariye seeks to return for the remaining one month of the term speaks to the depravity of the man and how dearly his sort holds the immunity protection of section 308 of the 1999 constitution as a shield against prosecution. From hiding, hunkered down, Dariye now bleats some cheap rhetoric whose banality is as Rabelaisian as it nauseating against the backdrop of the depth of profanity to which Dariye has plunged the office of Governor and the concept of democracy. Perhaps Fela Anikulapo-Kuti was right in his farcical contrivance of the etymology of the word “Democracy” from the Nigerian Pidgin English phrases – “Dem all Crazy” and “Demonstration of Craze.”

Nigerian Elections – Politics of Thuggery and Chaos

This past couple of weeks has been illuminating for the non-initiate as regards the means and ways of politicking in Nigeria. Ballot boxes snatched, voters and security agents maimed and killed, riotous protests, arson, armed gangs of thugs, soldiers and police using coercion to force people to vote for their benefactors, polling booth officials maimed or killed, and an attempt to blow up INEC headquarters in Abuja. All these are scenes reminiscent of a D-rate Nollywood movie, except it was enacted in real life. One might sooner be safer it seemed, in Kabul, Mogadishu or Faluja.

Nigerian politics has become a do-or-die affair where the only rule of the game is survival of the fittest, regardless of crudeness or brutality. The extent and level of violence that marked the April 14 and April 21 elections is enough to have the elections canceled since they were not in any respect free and fair. The daunting security and logistical issues facing the INEC made the commission inept.

The Atiku Abubakar ruling of the supreme court came only a few days to the election, making it almost impossible to amend the 60 million ballots to include Atiku Abubakar on the list of candidates. In the end the commission settled for a sticker. Also, the hostile nature of communities in opposition strongholds all over the country, particularly in the Niger Delta made it a precarious endeavor for INEC officials to administer elections in these areas (indeed some were reportedly killed). Add to this, the dire transportation situation in Nigeria and what you have is a near impossibility to have the elections commence on time all over the country. There are reports of elections commencing as late as 5:00 PM in certain states and even an extension of voting into the next day, April 22, 2007.

In the end, INEC released a result declaring Yar’Adua as the winner and the elections as free and fair. Yar’Adua probably truly won the elections since the PDP has the largest following in Nigeria. However, the chaotic and violent conduct of the election gnaws at the legitimacy of this victory. If the elections were not free and fair, should the results hold? Some quarters believe it should since all parties were involved in the display of violence and chaos. What thinks you?

Kalu's BBC Interview

Did anyone catch a glimpse of the interview Orji Uzo Kalu gave to the BBC last week? It was a tragic display of the crudeness and lack of finesse that has characterized the Kalu-led government of Abia State. It was full of bombast, an arcane, mislaid arrogance and patent ignorance.

When the anchor man, Allan Little tasked Kalu about the allegations of fraud leveled against him (being on the top 10 list of the EFCC), he claimed he was a very wealthy Nigerian before he became governor. He made a spurious claim of his company, SLOK, employing over 17,000 Nigerians. All investigations by the writer revealed that this is not true. SLOK employed only about 150 people before Kalu became governor according to sources. The way to prove this will be a look at the Nigerian Inland and Revenue Services books to see how may employee tax returns were remitted by SLOK. Kalu's solution for the Niger Delta problem is also half-brained. He does not seem to have a grasp of the problem facing the Niger Delta. He made no attempt to define or put the problem in context before proffering possible solutions.

This interview gives a good depiction of Kalu's standing and grasp of issues. Allan Little asked him about the issue of refuse dumps and heaps taking over the streets of Aba and how the place has been in dire need of sanitation for the past eight years. Kalu said it was not his duty to ensure the refuse dumps were cleared, but that nevertheless, he had this cleared about three months back. Allan Little was befuddled that in the eight years that Kalu had been governor it was only three months back that he had this done. Kalu just shrugged and repeated that it was not his responsibly. It begs the question - "What then is the role of a governor if he cannot provide a clean and sanitary state?"

For a man who is vying to be president Kalu seems to be so preoccupied with self-aggrandizement and embezzlement that he is oblivious of his responsibilities. This means if he is elected president, Nigeria can be a humongous refuse dump for all he cares.

For more on Kalu's kleptocracy see: - The Rape of Abia, a Tell Magazine Report.

Leadership and Economic Prosperity

I was going to write about Leadership and its role in economic prosperity in the third world before I came upon this McKinsey Quarterly interview with Michelle Bachelet, the new Chilean President. Her insights illuminate the role of key government officials in economic development and well being. Her vision of a free market Chile where people are free to pursue their aspirations of wealth creation while assured of security and protection for the vulnerable is one that every African leader should adopt.

Enjoy!...

McKinsey Quarterly

Economic Studies: Productivity & Performance

Interview

Promoting growth and social progress: An interview with the president of Chile

Michelle Bachelet discusses her views on the roots of political upheaval in Latin America, and the link between economic development and the fight against poverty.

Gonzalo Larraguibel and Marcelo Larraguibel

2007 Special Edition: Shaping a new agenda for Latin America

Michelle Bachelet, President of Chile, is one of Latin America’s most prominent leaders. A moderate Socialist who has pledged to combine pursuit of the country’s free-market policies with social measures to narrow the gap between rich and poor, her actions and pronouncements are of special interest to the outside world at a time of turbulent political change elsewhere in the region.

Bachelet’s life and political career have been significantly shaped by Chile’s troubled recent past. Detained and roughed up in 1975—two years after the late General Pinochet came to power in a military coup—she spent a period in exile, first in Australia then in the German Democratic Republic (the former East Germany), before returning to Chile in 1979. Like others on the left, she was active in the battle to restore democracy to the country in the late 1980s.

A trained surgeon who has also studied military strategy, Bachelet first came to national political prominence as health minister in the government of her predecessor Ricardo Lagos, where she initiated an in-depth review of Chile’s health care system. Subsequently appointed the minister of defense, she was credited with reforming the military pension system and modernizing the Chilean armed forces.

One year after her election victory as candidate of Concertación, the center-left coalition that has held power since 1990, President Bachelet faces a range of social and political challenges. The economic outlook appears robust—with GDP growth expected to rebound in 2007—and healthier-than-expected budget revenues last year (fueled by record-high copper prices) have raised hopes for social change. Political preoccupations have included street protests, a forced Cabinet reshuffle just three months into her term, and corruption scandals. On the external front the Bachelet Government has continued Chile’s pursuit of free-trade agreements (FTAs).

In this interview in the Presidential Palace in Santiago, Michelle Bachelet talked with McKinsey principal Gonzalo Larraguibel and McKinsey director Marcelo Larraguibel about the climate for foreign investment, political upheavals elsewhere in Latin America, and the changes needed to make her vision a reality.

The Quarterly: How do you view the rise of populist governments in Latin America and the reduced enthusiasm in some countries for free markets and free trade? And what do you see as Chile’s wider role in the region?

Michelle Bachelet: Latin America is facing an important moment. There have been 12 elections in the past year, all of them democratic, which represents a wonderful success and development of the regional political system. At the same time, economic and social indicators for the region are improving. However, there are countries where people are uneasy about the process of economic liberalization, because structural economic reforms were not accompanied by the social policies that were necessary. Therefore, many people in the region have been disappointed and are looking to see what else can be done.

The problem has not been with open economies per se but rather the lack of action in addressing poverty and social injustice. Chile has had its own experience—combining political stability, sound macroeconomic policies, and social cohesion—and we believe you cannot have one without considering the other.

When you ask about the role of Chile, it has been to share our experiences with our counterparts in Latin America. Many other leaders have been interested to know more about the experience of Chile. For example, we have brought together businesspeople from different countries and have tried to support countries that are interested in the skills our teams have acquired in negotiating FTAs. We have 54 of them, after all, giving us access to markets of 3 billion people throughout the world. We talk to colleagues about the complementary benefits these agreements can bring.

The Quarterly: Do you think other countries could give the region a bad name with their recent actions?

Michelle Bachelet: Every country has the self-determination and sovereignty to decide on their economic policies, and I would never speak about what others have done. I think that the best thing I can do is support them, continue to work with them, and be available to help.

Like any group of countries such as the European Union, Latin America has many different political, historical, and economic situations. We have been working on a South American Community, and some people even talk about a common currency. Looking at the EU, that would be a wonderful future goal. But today we have diverse countries, some with high external debt, others with low, some with very open economies, others less open. I still believe in integration, and there are working groups across the continent studying how to better connect our infrastructure and other topics such as social protection, energy, and education.

The Quarterly: What is your vision of the sort of country you would like Chile to become in ten years?

Michelle Bachelet: I would love Chile to be regarded as a modern society with a modern system of social protection and an open economy, both regionally and internationally, and also to be seen as a player on the world stage. Not, of course, in the sense of throwing its weight around, but rather as a contributor to the task of global development. We want Chile to be a country where you can find all the conditions needed to create wealth and innovate, but at the same time one that protects the vulnerable and looks after those with liabilities or those who started too far behind to benefit from the opportunities and possibilities we have here.

Over the past 16 years we have emerged from a difficult history to build a country that has political stability, economic stability, and social cohesion. In addition to social justice, everything we do is intended to promote a better quality of life and greater dignity for our people. You cannot have winners and losers—everyone has to win.

The Quarterly: It’s been almost a year since you were sworn in as President. What achievements from the past 12 months have you been most proud of?

Michelle Bachelet: I think the Chilean people clearly perceive the distinctiveness of our administration—democratic strengthening, economic growth, and social protection—which is very much in the spirit of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia. In our opinion, there is no incompatibility between growth and a more equal distribution of wealth. Indeed, we are convinced there is a virtuous relationship between the two. International experience shows that extreme inequality is not just unfair and a source of social tension but also reduces the dynamism of the economy. Countries lose the main motor of growth—the capacity to innovate and to take risks—and populism arises.

Concrete policies in the first year have included bills for the protection of children, reform of the pension system, educational reform, new ways to encourage entrepreneurship, and a new approach to housing that not only focuses on construction but also incorporates security, health care, and child care. In the first year we have doubled the number of public nurseries and child care facilities, which had not changed much in 30 years. We have to fight inequality from the very beginning of people’s lives, and this initiative also creates better conditions for women to take jobs. The challenge we have is to enable everyone to respond to the opportunities provided by globalization, which are increasing constantly.

Another positive aspect is that in 2006 we ratified and enacted our free-trade agreement with China—now our second-biggest commercial partner, after the United States—as well as our Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership with New Zealand, Brunei Darussalam, and Singapore. We successfully negotiated the same type of agreement with Japan. We also signed two additional free-trade agreements with Colombia and Peru and opened negotiations with Malaysia.

The Quarterly: Can you tell us more about the important levers that will turn your medium- and long-term vision into a reality?

Michelle Bachelet: Equal opportunities from the beginning would be one slogan, and education is the main issue here. We need to move from where we are now—with everyone guaranteed an education under the constitution—to the point where everybody gets an education of excellent quality. This is not just a matter of social justice; education is a vital economic agent. More still has to happen on coverage—notably for the 9th through 12th grades and kindergarten, where only 90 percent of children attend. We have specific goals for each age group. The same goes for higher education: about 650,000 people attend universities and colleges today, compared with about 77,000 in my day, but to develop innovation in science and technology we need to double that number. We have a particular problem in Chile because of the shortage of people with technical qualifications: in most countries the ratio is ten technical graduates for each professional. Here things are the other way round.

Education is also fundamental in attracting foreign investment, particularly in the regions of the country where we do not always have enough people with the necessary skills.

The Quarterly: It’s the reform of the pension system, though, that has probably attracted the most outside attention. How will that evolve?

Michelle Bachelet: Twenty-six years ago, we made some important reforms, as you say, that have been copied in other places. The old system, based on fixed compensation, also known as a defined benefit, was replaced by an individual capitalization system, or defined contribution, and managed by private entities.

That has brought several benefits for Chile, but we now realize that there were some significant gaps. We therefore need to find ways to make the pensions industry more competitive and transparent, introduce proper incentives to foster individual and collective savings, and ensure that every citizen receives a reasonable pension. The latest reforms represent a new architecture of benefits based on the integration of these three pillars. What people did not foresee in 1981 was the way people now move between jobs, perhaps only spending nine months in one place, with a period of unemployment in between. Women have been discriminated against, and young people do not think ahead as much and have made fewer contributions. A lot of the original assumptions proved overly optimistic. It was thought that the replacement rate—the amount of pension as a proportion of final salary—would be 80 to 85 percent, but it has turned out to be much lower: 51 percent for men, less than 30 percent for women.

The Quarterly: What are your other plans to improve the competitiveness of the Chilean economy?

Michelle Bachelet: One key area is innovation, around which we are developing tax incentives to encourage more industry participation. By OECD1 standards the 0.7 percent of GDP that Chile invests in research and development for science and technology is not only low, but over two-thirds of it comes out of public expenditure. The private sector contributes very little. Our aim is to get industry more closely involved with universities, science centers, and biotechnology research centers so we can add more value to our products. Our economy is very dependent on natural resources—copper, pulp and paper, and the fishing industry represent 54 percent of exports—and we need to do more than just produce more of them.

There are some encouraging signs. I recently saw how Codelco, the state-owned copper business, has been developing advanced techniques to produce copper in a more environmentally sustainable way. The salmon-farming industry is creating new vaccines and special medicines for this species. Similar developments are happening with mining supplies and through genetic engineering in forestry. The wine industry is looking to develop premium bottles. And we are also targeting agribusiness and tourism, which has great potential given our beautiful geography, highway infrastructure, and safety record.

In all this we see business clusters as a key mode of innovation, along with increased collaboration between the public and private sectors. We are also prioritizing small and medium-sized businesses, and we are considering a range of other initiatives, including a simplification of the tax system that has just passed through the Senate. These businesses account for 70 to 80 percent of employment here, but we can do much more: if you look at Sweden and other European countries, the export capability of these enterprises is much higher. Medium-sized businesses, for instance, are responsible for 50 percent of exports there, whereas ours account for only 3 percent of the total.

The Quarterly: What is your view of further privatization in Chile? For example, would you consider the privatization of minority stakes in state companies?

Michelle Bachelet: My government is not contemplating new privatizations, among other reasons because state-owned companies such as Codelco have demonstrated that they already function very well. What we want is to improve corporate governance in public companies—their transparency, management, professionalism, and the value they add for their owners, the people of Chile.

The Quarterly: What is your view of public-private partnerships in Chile for the development of areas such as infrastructure?

Michelle Bachelet: Public-private partnerships have been fundamental in the improvement of roads, ports, and airports. The mechanism of concessions2 to the private sector not only has allowed more funds to be invested in public assets, thereby improving the country’s integration and competitiveness, but has also been used to redirect limited public financing to activities with a high social impact. These are generally not profitable if one does not take that social impact into account. Concessions have also redefined the way in which public institutions work and think, allowing them to focus not only on the production of goods and services but also on their wider purpose to serve the needs of citizens. For the period of 2007 to 2010 we aim to invest more than $2.2 billion in concessioned infrastructure.

The Quarterly: That brings us to your own leadership style, notably in Chile. Do you think you bring a different perspective to change than what the country has experienced in the past?

Michelle Bachelet: It’s always difficult to say if some attributes are gender linked or more personal to women and men. I know women who are very hard, who act like a man and tell you, “If you don’t act like a man, you are dead.” Equally, I know men who share my style. I have made a conscious choice that I will pursue a leadership style that can be strong and authoritative but can retain “womanly” attributes, if you will. That is why I push for social dialogue, because I think the best thing for the economy and the people is for everyone—owners, managers, and workers—to sit down and see how we can move forward together.

When developing the latest pension system reform, for example, I set up a commission of intellectuals and practical people—those with know-how and different political perspectives. Many people laughed and said it was because I was unable to make decisions. They were completely wrong. The same thing has been done with education and childhood reforms. In both cases there has been wonderful work that has enabled the government to make decisions based on all points of view. I admire Denmark’s permanently standing Globalization Council, which consists of groups representing different parts of society, seeing how they can improve competitiveness and address social and human-capital challenges. Ultimately, this way of working results in better and quicker decisions. It is also important here because the issues we are discussing are not just for a one-term government to decide. Political parties and representative democracy are very important, but they are not enough. We have to move further.

The Quarterly: Finally, what is your message to foreign investors and CEOs looking at Chile and the region?

Michelle Bachelet: Trust Chile, believe in Chile, and invest here. It is a stable, fairly low-risk country, and we have developed serious and responsible policies. We will continue along the path Chileans have chosen democratically. Although we have done it well for the past 16 years, we are ready to make a new leap forward.

An example of responsibility is the two external funds created in response to the structural budget surplus caused by high copper prices. One is to finance the new pension system, since we know that the ratio of retired people to the productive sector is going to get bigger over the next ten years. The other fund, based on the Norwegian model, is to separate social benefits from the ups and downs of the economic cycle.

We are working on greater transparency and consistency in applying rules to local investors. We are also working very hard to get rid of any corruption—we are aware that one rotten apple can destroy the whole crop, but I do not think corruption is part of the Chilean way.

We are optimistic about the next year and probably the next two. We are working hard to ensure sustainable growth that will get us back to the normalized level of economic growth that we have had for many years.

About the Authors: -

Gonzalo Larraguibel is a principal and Marcelo Larraguibel is a director in McKinsey’s Santiago office.

Notes

1 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

2 The law on concessions permits the government to grant private companies the right to invest in, construct, and exploit, for an agreed period of time, projects that would otherwise have to be financed and managed by the public sector. So far, these projects have included airports, dams, hospitals, jails, ports, and roads.

Copyright © 1992-2007 McKinsey & Company, Inc.

Atiku’s Quixotic Breakfast Meeting.

The vice president, Abubakar Atiku, in a breakfast meeting/interview with journalists last Saturday in Kano made a pronouncement that he has been out of the loop in the Obasanjo led government for the past three years. He claimed not to be in the know of what entails in the government as regards how decisions are reached and executed by the president, the ministers and parastatals. He went on to make what appears to have been an attempt at a "half-wit" joke, something about how only a woman can force Obasanjo to do anything, making reference to an alleged ill-spent $500 million to revamp the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) in the first two years of the Obasanjo/Atiku administration.

If Atiku has been coasting idly in the Obasanjo led government, it means he has not been adding value. If this is the case, why has he allowed the Nigerian government to waste so much resources (the retinue of advisers, aides, presidential jets and other expensive perquisites run the Nigerian government in excess of $10 million per annum) to keep his self-confessed "useless" office? Would these resources not have been better spent to provide health care and education for the masses rather than on the up keep of an idle politician whose constant antagonism and cavil against his boss is nothing but a negative externality?

What any respectable person that has been thrust in an idle situation, such as the one to which the vice president alludes, would do is resign to pursue a more useful endeavor. But in spite of the “joblessness” Atiku claims to have found himself, he choses to remain put, perhaps to enjoy the perks of the office. The idle mind, the saying goes, is the devil’s playground. It seems the devil found in Atiku’s idle mind one hell of a playground! It may have been the devil who pushed Atiku to mismanage and embezzle the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) monies, be engaged in the iGate bribery scandal, the Marine Float, Globacom and ETB shady deals for which he has been indicted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

His mind, still seized by the devil, is causing Atiku to make a mockery of the office of the vice president and the Nigerian democratic process. Atiku has found a calling in justifying his disgraceful and quixotic conduct by his putative rejection of the “third term agenda” of last year. Many prominent politicians rejected the third term more vigorously than did Atiku, among who are the current senate president and his counterpart, the house speaker. These politicians have not been persecuted in any manner, as Atiku claims he is, for their objection of the third term proposal. The truth be told - Atiku continues to hold on to the office of the VP because his resignation would strip him of the immunity conferred on him by the office and therefore leave him open to prosecution for the acts of fraud of which he has been indicted. His quest for the presidency is in order to extend this immunity protection and be availed of the power to quash the stellar EFCC and its chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, who he holds personally responsible for his (Atiku’s) indictment.

Niger Delta Malignant Militancy

The spate of attacks and brazenness of the Niger Delta militant groups is escalating rapidly and getting out of hand. Like a malignancy, these militant groups are wreaking havoc on economic activity, safety and wellbeing in the Niger Delta. The situation in Rivers State is perhaps the most dire. Over the last few weeks, there have been the murder of about a dozen traditional chiefs and three expatriates, the kidnapping of Chinese, Korean and other expatriates of other nationalities - workers of telecommunication and other industries unrelated to the oil industry, a jailbreak and a few car bomb explosions. Port Harcourt may very well be Mogadishu or Baghdad.

While this utter breakdown of law and order is running wild, the governor of River State, the President of Nigeria and other officials whose business it is to secure the oil city are busy attending to political intrigues and scheming in a bid to entrench their protégés in power and protect their debauched interests after they leave office on May 29, 2007. Nigerian oil production in the second half of 2006 was reduced by as much as 600,000 barrels a day, resulting in a loss of over $4.4 billion in revenue (2.3% of the national GDP) due to disruption in oil production as a result of the activities of these militant groups.

If nothing is done to stem this wave of banditry and terrorism, and the phenomenon is allowed to take root, Nigeria toys with a situation where these militias would be in control of fractious enclaves in the Niger Delta. Anarchy will prevail; lawlessness, mayhem, gang wars and terrorism will be the order of the day, making the region ungovernable. There is no telling what debilitating effect this would have on economic activities in the region. The decay of other developmental indices that follow will be unfathomable. Without security, no one, expatriate or indigenous, would feel safe to conduct business in the Niger Delta; without economic activities, there will be poverty, illiteracy, diseases, socio-cultural decay and increased crime rate. The Niger Delta will find itself in a death spiral, and life in the region will be akin to what obtains in the lawless militia-controlled regions of the world of the likes of Kabul, Darfur, Baghdad and Gaza.

What needs to be done without delay is for the security forces, specifically the military, to be deployed to combat this unwholesome phenomenon. This means that the Nigerian government needs to allocate more than the measly $1.5 billion it budgeted to the military in 2006. Like cancer, the Niger Delta militancy needs to be attended with urgent radical treatment else it will metastasize and overwhelm the country, and Nigeria may soon find itself immersed in another civil war, only this time, several times more deadly than Biafra.

Adedibu’s Mobocracy

Over the past two decades most, if not all the political upheavals of the ancient town of Ibadan have been allegedly instigated or fomented by Adedibu. In a style reminiscent of Busari Adelakun (Eru obodo) the NPN mystical warlock strongman of Ibadan politics in the second republic, Adedibu's power comes from the grassroots through thuggery, coercion, bribery and organization of the many fractious sects of Oyo politics into an unwieldy but nevertheless awkwardly cohesive mobocracy. Lamidi Adedibu, the self-styled political strongman and linchpin of the "keg of gun powder" that is Ibadan politics has once again overreached his liberties by his comportment in recent weeks.

Last week, his associates were arrested in Ogbomosho South Local Government of Oyo State for the illegal diversion and possession of two Direct Data Capture (DDC) machines belonging to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The machines were being used for the illegal multiple registration of voters, a crime that appears to be rampant amongst desperate politicians in the ongoing voter registration across the country. Not only was Adedibu implicated in the illegal multiple voter registration scheme by his associates, last week, he was also involved in the assault of Senator Lekan Balogun and his State Security Service (SSS) details resulting in the mugging and robbery of a service pistol from one of the SSS officers.

It is bewildering that the state director of the SSS, Mr. Raymond Nkidirim has only issued an ultimatum to Adedibu to return the gun along with a written apology or face arrest if he failed to comply. The questions that arise are (a) were crimes committed in the two incidents? (b) is Adedibu in complicity? If the answer to both questions in either incident is yes then Adedibu should be arrested and prosecuted forthwith like any other perpetrator. It appears Mr. Nkidirim’s threat is half-hearted. The SSS has never been known to forewarn perpetrators before arrest. If it really seeks to uphold professional ethics and not double standard, the SSS should arrest Adedibu without delay and stop issuing empty threats.

Atiku Returns Next Sunday with “FBI” Guards? I Think Not.

An article titled “Atiku Seeks FBI Aid to Return Home” by The Daily Sun Washington DC correspondent, Ike Nnamdi, dated Wednesday, January 17, 2007, reports that the Vice President, Abubakar Atiku, who is rumored to be returning to Nigeria next Sunday, January the 21st will be doing so in the accompaniment of FBI agents as body guards. The reporter cites the reason as the VP’s lack of confidence in the Nigerian security agencies to secure his safety upon his return in light of recent developments as regards his cross-carpeting from the PDP to AC and his subsequent expulsion from the ruling PDP and eventual withdrawal of his privileges by President Obasanjo, who deemed Atiku’s adoption of AC as tantamount to resignation from his post as the VP.

The veracity of this report is questionable, particularly since the law setting up the FBI limits its jurisdiction strictly to within the USA, except in extenuating circumstances when the agency is investigating an international crime that violates US criminal laws, and even then, only in collaboration with the Interpol and the law enforcement agencies of the host country. The FBI collaborated with the EFCC in the investigation into the iGate bribery scandal involving the Louisiana Democrat Congressman, William Jefferson and associates and the complicity of Atiku in this deal, which eventually opened up the floodgates of the Petroleum Development Trust Fund (PDTF) fraud that has embroiled the VP, Fasawe, Adenuga and associates since last year.

It is highly improbable that the Nigerian government would permit the FBI to operate in Nigeria solely in order to protect the VP who has been implicated in its own investigation of William Jefferson. In the USA, guarding public officials or witnesses under the witness protection program is a preserve of the Secret Service and not the FBI, whose primary brief is to investigate criminals that violate US laws.

The only plausible reason why the FBI may accompany Abubakar Atiku to Nigeria (and this they can do only with the permission of the Nigerian government) is if Atiku has made a deal to be a key witness in the iGate bribery case in exchange for some amnesty, and the FBI visit is to secure certain documentation or evidence that would assist in the prosecution of the primary suspects. Anything other than this is indicative that Mr. Ike Nnamdi is either concocting a tale to sell his paper or has been sold a mickey by his sources.

Nigerian Census – Gender Population Distribution Shift, a Red Flag

Many have commented on the figures of the March 2006 National census, which puts the Nigerian population at 140 million. Comparing this with the November, 1991 figure of 88.992 million, this is a growth rate of about 3.07% per annum, which approximates the estimates that have been put forward by various statistical models. What is however intriguing is the population distribution along gender lines. In 1991, males accounted for 50.04% and females 49.96% of the population (a male/female ratio of 1.001). The distribution in 2006 has males accounting for 51.21% and females, 48.79% (a male/female ratio of 1.050).

This shift in population distribution raises a red flag. Several questions come to mind as to what may be responsible for this gender distribution shift. Could it be cultural, social, biological, economic or man-made? Are more male children being born than are female ones, or are more females dying at a faster rate than are males? Or were there cultural issues that limited the accessibility of females to census enumerators 2006 more than in 1991? Could it be that the ravages of HIV/AIDS is taking a toll on the female population, especially since females have a higher susceptibility to the disease? Using the 1991 census figures from the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) for statistical analysis to help answer these questions the following are the three most striking findings: -

• The November 1991 census showed that 72.27% of the entire population was made up of 29 year olds and younger
• Of these, about 51.74% (or 36.67% of the entire Nigerian population) were females and 49.26% (or 35.6% of the entire Nigerian population) were males
• The population growth rate for males in Nigeria between 1991 and 2006 was 3.23% versus 2.90% for females
  

While various political dissenters have raised allegations of fraud as regards the validity of the census figures, equally important, perhaps even more so, is an investigation into the cause of the gender distribution (sex ratio) shift. Although this shift appears not to be statistically significant at the international accepted 95% confidence interval, however, it is important to know if females have a higher death rate as a result of violence, diseases or some female-specific morbidity, or if there is a lower birthrate for females. If either of these two scenarios is not the case, then why were fewer females counted in the last census?

Open Letter to President Obasanjo (Part 2)

Dear OBJ,

Happy New Year! One year ago, I wrote you to thank you for your achievements in 2005, namely the Paris Club Debt forgiveness, EFCC successes amongst other issues. I also beseeched you to make a definitive statement that you would not be seeking a 3rd term in the wake of all the politicking and lobbying for a third term. Even though you had variously hinted that you were not interested in a third term, saying that you would be returning to Otta come May 29, 2007, your actions suggested otherwise, particularly as you were reported as having said that you would make your decision whether to run or not for a third term after the senate had decided on the bill. Last May, the senate threw out the bill and effectively made the decision for you.

The year 2006 was a successful one for Nigeria under your leadership. Not only did Nigeria fully liquidate its Paris Club debt, but the record high crude oil prices saw her foreign reserve rise up in excess of $40billion, the highest ever in Nigeria’s history. Also, your fight against corruption ,spear-headed by the EFCC made far-reaching strides with the successful investigation, indictment and prosecution of several high ranking federal and state government officials. These activities culminated in the investigation and indictment of your Vice President, Abubakar Atiku, for financial impropriety with the Petroleum Development Trust Fund (PDTF), but who enjoys the protection of section 308 of the constitution, is yet to be arrested and charged. As a fall out of this, there are accusations and recriminations by the VP and his sympathizers that he is being targeted for opposing your third term ambition.

OBJ, as you know, this is expected of the typical Nigerian politician, who would do anything to hold on to power even after he has been caught with his pants down. Compounding Atiku’s problem is his defection to a rival party, his eventual expulsion from the Peoples Democratic Party and your declaration of his office as vacant just over a week ago. Were he an honorable man, Atiku would have resigned his position as VP before defecting to the Action Congress (AC) as its presidential ticket bearer. But it appears he is not. OBJ, my advice to you on this is to follow the dictates of the constitution. It is more likely than not that the Atiku issue would be visited by the senate and house of assembly after the holidays. Let the legislators decide if the code of conduct committee’s and the EFCC investigation reports, as well as the VPs defection to AC are enough grounds for impeachment. In the meantime, the mature thing to do is to reinstate the VPs privileges, that way you will be seen as being fair and without prejudice.

Another topical issue, which you should address seriously, is the militancy in the Niger Delta. There are definitely legitimate environmental degradation and economic disruption issues in the region that need to be addressed with the utmost urgency, but these do not justify the lawlessness, murder and anarchy perpetrated by militant groups. The wave and frequency of violence and abductions seem to be escalating with every passing day. OBJ, I know you have been treading softly here, not wanting to use the kind of force the Nigerian military is capable of for want of a repeat of Oddi. While this stance seeks to be politically correct, it places little value on the lives of the men and women of the Nigerian police and armed forces and innocent bystanders who have been murdered or maimed by the militants in their attacks. In addition, Nigeria looses untold tens of millions of dollars daily with the resulting disruption in crude oil production activities; up to 500,000 barrels a day in the last few attacks.

OBJ, your reticence and inaction embolden these militants, who construe your "pacifist" posture as weakness and a tacit acceptance of defeat. My advice, Mr. President is that you go at this issue with all the armament in your arsenal – Niger Delta development programs, youth enlightenment, negotiation, military incursion, intelligence gathering, arrests, prosecution and incarceration should all be used to address this problem. Since the militants have resorted to arms, it is only proper that you return the favor with a stronger and mightier force as a signal that you are in full control of the sovereignty of Nigeria and would not tolerate lawlessness. A well-trained, adequately-kited and properly equipped force of 7,500 to 10,000 troops should be able to secure the Niger Delta. With a strong and effective military presence, the militants would be forced to abandon their tactics of mayhem, murder and kidnapping and seek to negotiate peace, and then you will be negotiating from a position of strength, backed by your credible threat of military incursion. It is important that you achieve this with speed, precision and a well managed and transparent press coverage, exposing the nefarious activities of these militants for what they truly are, and not leave any room for a situation where they are seen as folk heroes by propaganda and misinformation.

Your remaining five months in office, OBJ, should be used to consolidate all the good that your administration has entrenched. You should be laying the grounds for improvement and development in other areas of the economy and social amenities, namely education, health care, security/crime-fighting, power generation, roads, housing and other social infrastructure. While economists argue that privatization and commercialization are the way to go, these are often accompanied by pristine and impeccably administered regulatory, policing and judiciary institutions in the advanced economies of the world where these work. OBJ, you have spent the second half of your administration trying to achieve this and would do well if you spend the remainder of your time in office mapping out a blue print from which your successor can continue the pursuit of these noble objectives.

Nigerian Fuel Pipeline Explosions – Cost of Kleptocracy.

Fuel shortage in Nigeria is perennial, at least since the mid-1980s. With a runaway population growth, increased vehicular traffic and grossly inadequate electricity generation and supply, the demand for petroleum products far outstrips supply. Most of the petroleum products are regulated, refined and marketed by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) owned facilities. These facilities, wholly owned by the Government, are managed by a band of mediocre and corrupt bureaucrats. They are run down and consistently operate far below capacity, leading to the perennial shortages suffered in the country.

It has been alleged that apart from acts of frank graft, the bureaucrats that run these facilities deliberately mismanage and neglect maintenance of these production and distribution facilities as a means of creating artificial scarcities so that their cronies, associates and front corporations would be awarded lucrative contracts to import the scarce products, a process initially instituted to bridge the supply gap that would ensue when these facilities are temporarily shut down for maintenance.

Then there are those criminal gangs, who break the pipes to steal petroleum products for sale in the black market. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is alleged to have started off like this before graduating to crude oil bunkering, piracy and kidnapping. These illegal bunkerers, whose operations sometimes include highly placed government civil service and military officials are usually well organized with elaborate distribution systems and sophisticated arms to fight off law enforcement agents as they perpetrate the crime. These criminals leave in their wake busted pipes that leak fuel into the ecosystem constituting various environmental and safety hazards. Often, these abandoned busted pipes become pots of gold to the local community, when they easily accessible. Rather than report the hazard to the police and concerned authorities, these locals scurry to siphon as much fuel as they can to sell in the black market. Using Jerry cans and all sorts of improvised vessels, these locals besiege the hazardous breached pipes, often in frenzied fractious droves that break out in frequent bouts of fisticuffs and eventually ending in a catastrophe.















































What happened at Abule Egba/Awori, Lagos on December 26, 2006 is rather tragic. Some have said the victims brought it on themselves, since clearly, they were stealing from the ruptured pipes. But really it is not as simple as that. With an existing petroleum product shortage, a large army of largely unenlightened, unemployed, poor and desperate citizens, the ruptured pipe gushing precious fuel must have been very tempting, despite the dangers involved in "getting a piece of the action." It was reported that the pipe had been broken at least three days earlier by some illegal bunkerers, who had only abandoned the scene hours before the explosion.

It bugles the mind that all through out the three days the thieves were in control of the broken pipe, none of the locals reported the case to the police. Perhaps someone did, but as is characteristic of the police, they did not respond, perhaps for fear of being out-gunned by the bunkerers. Or, it may be that the police was even in complicity with the criminals, hence their non-show during the three-day operation. Also, is it possible that the NNPC, to which the pipes belong, did not detect the breached pipe on time? This is hard to believe, since all it will take to detect this is a vigilant human monitor to notice the discrepancy between the volumes pumped and received. Besides, the pipelines are purportedly rigged with electronic pressure monitoring systems that automatically trigger off when the pipelines are tampered with or have a break. This would have been set off as soon as the bunkerers struck were it working as it should.

The Nigerian citizenry needs to resolve to stanch this dangerous trend. More than 2000 have died as a result of this illegal activity alone within the past few years. Nigerians need to demand better policing and maintenance of petroleum facilities. They need to stop colluding with illegal fuel bunkerers and criminals, and report suspicious activities to law enforcement authorities. Of course, the government on its own part needs to address the issue of unemployment and poverty, and the issue of inadequate training and equipment of the law enforcement agencies. Perhaps the way to go with the perennial fuel shortages is complete privatization of the production and distribution facilities, with the government fully divesting its commercial interests in the industry, providing only regulatory and monitoring services through its agencies.















GLOSSARY OF NIGERIA PIPELINE DISASTERS
Dec 2006: At least 280 killed in Lagos
May 2006: At least 150 killed in Lagos
Dec 2004: At least 20 killed in Lagos
Sept 2004: At least 60 killed in Lagos
June 2003: At least 105 killed in Abia State
Jul 2000: At least 300 killed in Warri
Mar 2000: At least 50 killed in Abia State
Oct 1998: At least 1,000 killed in Jesse, Delta State

Atiku’s Self-Inflicted Coup de Grace

The Atiku adoption by AC and at least ten other political parties as their presidential candidate in the April 2007 general elections and his eventual expulsion from the PDP and a declaration of the vacancy of the Vice Presidency by President Obasanjo has finally brought the Obasanjo/Atiku feud to a crescendo. Citing the 1999 constitution as its locus, the PDP National Executive Committee made the demand of Obasanjo yesterday to appoint a new VP to replace Atiku. Let’s examine Section 142 of the Nigerian constitution, on which the Atiku replacement is being hitched, as quoted below: -

“142. (1) In any election to which the foregoing provisions of this Part of this Chapter relate, a candidate for an election to the office of President shall not be deemed to be validly nominated unless he nominates another candidate as his associate from the same political party for his running for the office of President, who is to occupy the office of Vice-President and that candidate shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of Vice-President if the candidate for an election to the office of President who nominated him as such associate is duly elected as President in accordance with the provisions aforesaid.
(2) The provisions of this Part of this Chapter relating to qualification for election, tenure of office, disqualification, declaration of assets and liabilities and oaths of President shall apply in relation to the office of Vice-President as if references to President were references to Vice-President.”

The full text of the entire 1999 constitution may be downloaded at the following link: - http://www.nigeria.gov.ng/Nigerian%20Constitution.pdf for your thorough perusal. It appears that this section quoted above provides for the conditions for election to office and is silent on what would entail in the event that a serving Vice President cross carpets. Going further to read sections 143 and 144 of the 1999 constitution, which provide for the removal of the Vice president, there is also no reference to what happens in the event that a serving VP defects to another party, or the role of his political party in the removal of the VP. It however lays down a process where at least 1/3 of the members of the National Assembly would have to submit in writing to the President of the Senate, allegations of gross misconduct (with specific details) against the VP and the subsequent institution of a seven-man investigative panel by the Chief Justice of the Federation to probe the allegation sequent upon a motion passed by at least 2/3 majority of both houses of the National Assembly. The findings of this seven-man investigative panel would form the basis of impeachment.

It should not be difficult for the Obasanjo controlled PDP, which controls majority of both houses of Assembly to achieve the impeachment of Atiku, should it degenerate into a long drawn out constitutional battle. Putting the antecedents in perspective, this is probably what will happen. Atiku is highly unlikely to resign, given that he is under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and would lose the immunity protection conferred on him according to section 308 of the 1999 constitution by virtue of his position as VP. The New Year would probably find Atiku sojourning abroad to wait out his imminent impeachment. Should the PDP controlled house succeed in impeaching Atiku, we can be sure of him electing not to return to Nigeria, automatically abandoning his presidential ambition, in a bid to escape arraignment by the EFCC for the gross acts of fraud of which he is being accused. Atiku has finally dealt himself the coup de grace. As it stands now, the Atiku presidential candidacy is a lame duck, nothing more than wishful thinking and self-delusion by members of AC and the ten or so other parties that have nominated the embattled VP to bear their flag.

If Atiku does decide to return home, it would most likely be upon securing a court injunction against his putative removal by President Obasanjo. Again, the battle will be shifted to the floors of the House of Assembly and Senate, where both men will bring out the biggest guns yet in their respective arsenals. In the end, it is more likely that President Obasanjo will prevail, sequent upon which Atiku would most likely disappear in the manner of Dariye so as to escape prosecution by the EFCC. It is hoped that this business would pass swiftly and cleanly (even though I have strong doubts) so as not to distract from other salient issues in the Nigerian polity.

Atiku Bags AC's Presidential Ticket and Ten Others'

Democracy is a great thing. All that matters in a democracy is the will of the people, right or wrong. So long as the majority or their representatives vote on an issue, the principles of democracy dictate that the will of the people be done. Atiku’s nomination by Action Congress (AC) and ten other less influential parties as their presidential ticket bearer for the April, 2007 general elections is a testament to democracy, that is if the process of his nomination was democratic. From all indications, it appears to be, and is an expression of the parties’ protest to the ostracization of the Vice President from his original party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

AC’s nomination of the VP is a strategic ploy to win over a disgruntled, but considerably powerful political clique ostracized from the PDP as a fall out of in fighting within the ranks of the PDP echelon. Atiku leads this group, which includes people like former PDP chairman, Sunday Awoniyi amongst others. AC, which essentially has no political clout outside of the Nigerian southwest hopes to extend its clout to the constituencies in other regions of Nigeria from which these disgruntled ex-PDP bigwigs come. The adoption of Atiku by the other ten political parties of lesser influence should consolidate AC’s clout even more.

How the PDP would react to the adoption of Atiku by the rival political parties is unclear. One thing however is certain. Having accepted his adoption by these rival parties, Atiku has effectively resigned his membership of the PDP. It is also not clear if this means he ceases to be Vice President, it is unlikely though, particularly since he is under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and as long as he is VP is protected from prosecution as a result of the immunity conferred on him by the office. As at the time of posting this blog, it was reported that President Obasanjo had ordered that the VP not be availed the use of any of the jets in the presidential fleet for his political campaigns.

The Obasanjo/Atiku duo is probably one of the worst relationships between a president and his vice in history. While the one does not want to fire the other because he does not want to appear too high-handed and vindictive, the other does not want to resign so as not to appear weak, and lose the immunity from prosecution that his office confers. The next few weeks should be interesting as we watch the battle between these two play out.

Obasanjo/Atiku PTDF Recriminations – Breakdown of the “Chop I Chop” Code

There is often a code of silence amongst criminals. With the Mafia, it is “Omerta”, with the Yakuza, it is the “Jingi.” Usually, these codes of conduct hold these criminal organizations together and are essential for the achievement of their nefarious objectives. When members of these organizations run afoul of these codes, the repercussions are often dire; in some cases, fatal. With the Mafioso, it could range from slap-on-the-wrist measures such as demotion to a lower rank, to the more severe like gruesome torture or execution, depending on the severity of the transgression. The Japanese Yakuza, which operates much like the Italian Mafia, also has in addition to gruesome torture and execution, a punitive measure called “Yubitsume,” where the transgressor cuts off the tip of his pinky finger as an act of contrition.

Amongst Nigerian politicians (essentially gangsters in flowing robes), such a code of conduct exists – the “chop I chop” code. Like in the Mafia and Yakuza, every once in a while, this code of conduct breaks down. Atiku it seems broke this code when he challenged the third term bid of Obasanjo. His “Yubitsume” for this transgression was expulsion from the PDP and public humiliation for embezzlement (albeit it seems, a founded allegation). The sensational pronouncements of the Vice President, Abubakar Atiku, regarding his role in the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), and how the fund was administered attests to this breakdown of the ‘chop I chop” code. In a fashion reminiscent of the testimony of Sammy “The Bull” Gravano, turncoat underboss of the notorious Gambino crime family of New York that saw the downfall of the Teflon Don, John Gotti, godfather of the Gambino crime family, Atiku sang like a bird to the ad-hoc senate committee.

His exposé revealed how the PTDF was used as a slush fund to reward party loyalists and fund various illicit business deals by the echelon of the PDP and their cronies. Particularly disturbing were his revelation of (a) payment of N250 million in spurious legal fees to the chambers of Afe Babalola for incorporation services of a company, Galaxy Backbone, allegedly floated by OBJ and cronies, (b) millions of naira in retainership fees still being paid to the chambers of the new National Security Adviser, Muktar, and (c) the quid pro quo transfer of funds, designated "loan" to the United Bank of Africa (UBA) in exchange for a personal loan of N200 million advanced to Obasanjo for the purchase of shares in Transcorp, on whose board the UBA Managing Director sits. Atiku however was conveniently silent on his complicity in the Globacom and IGate deals for which he is accused of embezzlement of PTDF monies to fund. If the VP's allegations are true, and chances are that a substantial part of it is true (Obasanjo himself has admitted to having held shares in Transcorp), then it is pertinent on the Senate Committee to set up an investigation to verify the claims of the VP and from there institute legal proceedings against Atiku, Obasanjo and anyone who is found to be involved, or is a beneficiary of the shameless illicit scheme, and that includes the Afe Babalola chambers, Galaxy Backbone, Globacom, UBA, ETB, TIB, IGate, Marine Float etc.

The chance that this will happen though is rather slim. Just as with the Yakuza, the Mafia and other criminal organizations, the downfall of an old cabal often presages the dawn of a new one. If however Nuhu Ribadu would borrow a leaf from Elliot Spitzer, the fearless New York state Attorney General (now Governor elect), who is credited with the downfall of the Gambino crime family, perhaps Nigeria would have a glimmer of hope.

Yar Adua Picks Jonathan to Pacify Niger Delta

The reason adduced to the surprise selection of the Bayelsa State Governor, Dr Goodluck Jonathan as running mate to the PDP presidential candidate is to pacify the Niger Delta folk, who have been contending issues ranging from resource control to environmental degradation. The echelon of the PDP figures that its chances of winning the 2007 presidential elections would only be improved with an Ijaw native on the presidential ticket as VP. The Ijaw, reputed to be the 4th largest ethnic group in Nigeria have been in the forefront of the contentious, often violent, issues of resource control and environmental degradation.

Only two weeks ago, leaders of the notorious Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) had lent their support to Buba Marwa, former military governor of Lagos state in his bid for the PDP presidential ticket. At the time, Jonathan was not on the radar for consideration in the presidential race and so was a non-issue. Now that he has been picked by Yar Adua, and Marwa has lost the PDP presidential ticket, it is unsure how MEND and indeed the entire Niger Delta will take it. Speculations had been rife of Cross River state governor, Donald Duke or his Rivers state counterpart, Peter Odili winning the VP slot after the PDP convention last Saturday, alas both contenders were disappointed.

It is understandable that Odili did not get the nomination, given the ongoing investigation into allegations of financial impropriety leveled against his government. Duke, on the other hand has been hailed severally as Mr. Clean and for various accomplishments of his government. This leads to the question of whether Jonathan is not being rewarded for the insurgencies playing out in the Niger Delta mainly by the Ijaw? (Never mind that his wife is under investigation by the EFCC for money laundering, a story for another forum) If this is the case, then it is a dangerous precedent that might encourage other aggrieved ethnic groups to take up arms to further their causes.

If one thinks about it, perhaps this precedent had already earlier been set long before the Obasanjo regime came into power. It was the Yorubas who were most vociferous about the lost mandate of June 12, 1993 denying Abiola, a Yoruba native from ascension to the presidency by the military juntas of Babangida and Abacha. With the auspicious demise of the evil Abacha and Abiola in 1998, pundits agree that the Obasanjo candidacy was a consensus to pacify the Yorubas for the lost mandate of Abiola. If this is the case then we might soon see a resurgence of the Biafra movement of the Igbos over the next few years should they not produce the president (an extremely high improbability) come 2007. Igbo jingoists like Ojukwu, Kalu, Uwazurike and Nzeribe should be watched.

The remaining 200-plus odd minority ethnic groups can only watch this ethnocentric regional politics play out as they decipher with which of the major ethnic groups to pitch their tents to maximize their benefits. The challenge for the new president after May 27, 2007 will be how to manage this rambunctious, party-pied, ethnocentric polity for order while maintaining a fair balance of justice and equity for the various interest groups that make up the complexity that is Nigeria.

Nigeria’s Own Enrons

It is time for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to cast its net on the Nigerian corporate world. The recent restatements and financial impropriety in Cadbury Nigeria Plc. is only but a tip of the iceberg of what entails in many publicly quoted Nigerian companies. In the late 1990s, the Nigerian economy witnessed a spate of failed banks and financial institutions as a result of gross mismanagement and frank acts of fraud by key management staff, including a sitting and past president of the Nigerian Institute of Bankers (NIB), the highest standard setting body of banking in Nigeria.

Many of those indicted were arrested by the Federal Investigation and Intelligence Bureau (FIIB) and were held at the Alagbon Close headquarters of the agency. But as is characteristic of Nigerian law enforcement, many of the indicted soon found themselves off the hook for a combination of reasons including muddled up investigation, bribery, intimidation, influence peddling and sheer incompetence of the prosecution teams. By May 1999, when the Obasanjo administration came into power there was hardly any indicted manager of the failed banks under investigation despite the fact that several tens of thousands of Nigerians had lost huge fortunes in the failed banks.

The manufacturing industry had its own spate of mismanagement too, which led to many of the multinational firms and foreign partners divesting their interests in Nigeria. The roster of the multinationals that divested their interests includes – Pfizer, Aventis, GlaxoWellcome and SmithKline Beecham (now merged as GlaxoSmithKline), Hoescht, P&G etc. Some companies did not divest their interests; instead they fired erring key officers. Lever Brothers for instance fired the late Rufus Giwa, then president of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) for fraudulent restatements and fiduciary impropriety. It was nauseating to see a man so indicted lead MAN for several more years while at the same time sitting on the board of the notoriously mismanaged Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) of the Abacha years.

Another case is that of one time acclaimed whiz-kid and CEO of the United Bank of Africa, Bello Giwa-Osagie, who is reputed to have gotten a golden handshake of about $100 million for his quiet withdrawal from the Bank after charges of fiduciary impropriety were leveled against him. Giwa-Osagie was succeeded by another pretender to the whiz-kid epithet, Tony Elumelu, who also sits on the board of the mega-company, Transcorp. Many have forgotten Mr. Elumelu’s role in the Umana E. Umana pyramid finance scheme of the early 1990s when thousands of Nigerians lost their life savings to the scam. Elumelu was the branch manager of All States Bank in Port Harcourt where the scammer, Umana banked his loot.

Elumelu from this unscathed and went on to found the now defunct Standard Trust Bank, which was the undisputed king of round-tripping, a fraudulent scheme where the bank formed thousands of fictitious corporations and used them to request for foreign exchange allocation from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and then turn round to sell these allocations in the black market for a premium. All Elumelu and his cohort got for this illegal activity was a slap on the wrist and a few months' suspension from participating in the foreign exchange bids, rather than the arrest, revocation of banking license and jail terms that they deserve, considering the grievous harm round-tripping did to the value of the Naira and the Nigerian economy. Now Tony Elumelu is rewarded with a sit on the Transcorp board and, in a perverse way, regarded as some sort of corporate hero.

Without repercussion for their actions corporate executives will continue to perpetrate acts of fraud with impunity. The EFCC should take a look at the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission, the CBN and other agencies that are supposed to police these publicly quoted companies and bring any erring agent or corporate manager to book to show they are not only after financial criminals in government and international scam artists but corporate criminals and all other types of financial criminals alike.

Babangida Finally Gets the Message

Over the past year, as soon as it became clear that President Obasanjo would not be getting a third term, the Nigerian media has been rife with speculations that former head of state, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB) would be contesting in the 2007 presidential elections. Many professional political opportunists and hangers-on began jostling and honing their talons in anticipation of this. Unsolicited support for the former leader poured in from all corners of Nigeria in the bid of these political jobbers to secure positions of influence should the General declare his intentions. When a few weeks ago, he picked the nomination form, the fold of IBB opportunists was agog. Loudmouth boasts and claims of connectedness to the General was the order of the day.

IBB’s announcement over the weekend that he would not be contesting against his close associates, Yar Adua and Gusau, who have also indicated interest in the race is a blow to the scheming of these professional political opportunists. While all Nigerians are elated at the pull-out of IBB, acclaimed killer of the Nigerian 3rd attempt at democracy by his annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, widely believed to have been won by the late M.K.O. Abiola, these political opportunists are grossly unhappy.

For once, IBB has taken a widely popular decision. If we are to give him credit, he has lived up to his reputation as a master schemer. He must have analyzed the political climate and peculiarities of the times and realized the futility of his candidacy. It is believed that President Obasanjo might have been responsible for the IBB pullout, having denied the toothy General of his wholesale endorsement. The writer does not see why Obasanjo should single out any one of the aspirants for endorsement. If what we seek to install is a democracy Obasanjo should leave the endorsement to the individual parties to conduct. Whatever informed the IBB pullout, it is a welcome decision.

MEND’s Double Speak

One wonders what criteria MEND used to disqualify certain presidential aspirants and endorse former Military Administrator of Lagos state, Buba Marwa. They mentioned the antecedents of the politicians as the formula used to arrive at the endorsement of Marwa. If memory serves us correctly, only late last year Mohammed Buba Marwa was arrested for complicity in the Abacha loot, to which he admitted and remitted the money as condition for his release. Is this not enough ground to disqualify Marwa?

If it smells like a dead fish, chances are it is a dead fish. The endorsement of Marwa by MEND smells like a rotten fish and only goes to confirm what many have suspected of the nefarious organization. Perhaps what has happened is that forces behind the Marwa candidacy have bought ("settled" in local parlance) the leadership of MEND, who have thus sold their support in their characteristic venal manner, since as we all know, it is money that drives these folks.

Those faceless folks with the fake names who signed the so called communiqué of the dubious “political arm of the Consultative Assembly” of MEND do not speak for the right thinking people of the Niger-Delta who see their putative endorsement of the Marwa candidacy as an extension of the despicable and diabolical machinations that have characterized this anarchical and terrorist group. And if Marwa were to have a crack at the presidency, he would do himself a whole world of good to distance himself from this criminal and nihilist group, and condemn its tactics of mayhem and anarchy.

Dariye, Hiding Behind Constitutionality

In Jos, Plateau state, Joshua Dariye, governor and fugitive of the British law has been under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for a couple of years now. He has been engaged in a tussle to hang on to power (and therefore guaranteed immunity from prosecution) through all sorts of underhanded tactics including bribery and intimidation of all 24 members of the Plateau state legislative assembly. 16 of these legislators have been indicted in their own separate acts of graft (many in complicity with the governor) and are currently incarcerated for these by the EFCC, leaving the Plateau state house with only 8 sitting members.

Over the past few weeks, this 8 member house has been trying to constitute a panel to hear the allegations of graft leveled against Dariye, and institute impeachment proceedings as a fall out, if the governor is found wanton. 2 of the 8 legislators have declined participation in the proceedings, raising the question of the constitutionality of the panel since the Plateau state constitution requires that such a panel be constituted by at least one-third of the 24 legislative members, and not the one-fourth that the current 6 member panel constitutes. This segues into the issue of whether the 16 Plateau state legislative house members in EFCC net should not automatically lose their positions as legislators and therefore be replaced by newly elected ones in freshly held run-off elections.

Expensive as it may be, replacing these compromised 16 legislators by new ones will afford the constitution of a panel to hear the case against the governor from a full house of 24 members. That way, not only will the issue of constitutionality not arise, it will also mitigate any bias or malafide intentions that may exist between the governor and the 8 legislator who are not in complicity with the governor in his indictment. Also, it will remove any suspicion that those 6 legislators that make up the current controversial panel are a tool of the EFCC. In addition, it will restore the loss of representation at the state assembly for the constituencies from which the incarcerated legislators hail.

The case against Dariye appears very strong. It will be a shame to bungle it up and let the man go scot-free on the basis of unconstitutionality.

Kalu, Bakassi Boys or EFCC Justice?

The Nigerian media in the past week has been rife with the unfolding impeachment proceedings in Ekiti and Plateau states, as well as hostage takings in the Niger Delta and the Atiku battle against the EFCC report. One more brewing story which I found pretty interesting was the indictment of Mrs. Eunice Kalu, mother of the Abia state governor, Orji Uzor Kalu, along with eighteen others and the fracas that ensued in an attempt to take her into custody. Kalu was one of the youngest governors elected in the 1999 elections at the age of 39. He seemed to want to project an image of a new breed progressive, who was self assured and legitimate.

He is alleged by his paid supporters to have achieved so much at such a young age, having succeeded exceedingly well in business, academia and politics, they boast. Indeed, he is referred to as one of the youngest Nigerian millionaires ever, industrialist, investor, holder of doctorate degrees etc. With such a sleek and coruscating profile, I became more curious. "All that glitters," my third grade teacher often retorted, "is not gold." I took some time to do some research on this fellow, Kalu. My first stop was his website: - http://www.orjikalu.com/biography.php . The immediate impression the discerning mind would have from viewing the website is that this is a fellow hungry for self-aggrandizement. The layout and verbiage reveal someone trying very hard to appear erudite and sophisticated. The unnecessary verbosity and grammatical inappropriateness and errors that leap out from the web pages give away the crass essence of the promoter.

It is alleged that Kalu was a student at the University of Maiduguri in the early 1980s but did not graduate because he could not meet the academic requirements. While a student at Maiduguri, it is rumoured, Kalu was a "dan dauda" (male prostitute) and pimp to a number of influential northern Nigerian alhajis and military men, and that this was his break into business, acting as a front for these influential northerners in the beginning, then later becoming a conduit through whom many were said to have laundered their ill-acquired monies. This preoccupation, it is alleged, had Kalu kicked out of the University of Maiduguri as he was unable to satisfy his academic requirements.

Kalu attempted to use his newly acquired wealth to buy some respectability. He procured for himself a BSc degree from the Abia state University, where no one can recall ever seeing him attending any classes. He also wheedled his way on the board, as chairman, of the badly run and now defunct Cooperative and Commerce Bank Plc. Hungry for limelight, and self promotion, Kalu continued to cavort around with these influential alhajis and military men, seizing all photo opportunities at their private and public functions, to which he was often self-invited. He flashed pictures of himself and these men to whosoever would care, and adorned his residence and office with same to give credence to his supposed close association with them. Having built this aura of "connectectedness" to the powers that be, Kalu wilily extracted favors and contracts from unsuspecting associates with the promise of connecting them to his influential friends. Sometimes, it is alleged, he would outrightly claim to be representing one or more of his powerful military friends as he demanded favors from government officials, who obliged him because they were scared out of their wits and careful not to offend these powers that be, and the pecking order that prevailed during the military dictatorships of the 1980s to 1990s.

With the advent of democracy in 1999, Kalu took advantage of all the chaos and flux that existed, used all sorts of underhanded tactics and thuggery to quell all legitimate opponents and hijacked the governorship of Abia state. Having at his disposal, the state's press machinery, Kalu continued his loud and arrogant self-promotion, bleating his half-baked rhetoric while at the same time helping himself to the state's coffers along with members of his immediate family, including his mother. Under the pretext of fighting crime, Kalu took advantage of the fact that the Nigerian Police found it difficult to meet the demands of crime fighting as a result of years of systematic emasculation by the successive military dictatorships of the 1980s and 1990s. With the Nigerian Police so depleted and demonized, Kalu introduced a vigilante group, "The Bakassi Boys," who were in essence, Kalu's personal army.

The Bakassi Boys, a rowdy band of misanthropic (often drugged) murderers, committed perhaps the worst human rights abuses ever in Nigeria. Under the pretext of routing out criminal elements, this vigilante group was involved in extortion, torture, extra judiciary killings and various other atrocities. They were the accusers, investigators, prosecutors, judge, jury and executioners. All crimes were punishable by death, delivered (literally) by way of a thousand cuts, amputations and decapitation. Sometimes, this pervertion of justice was extended to hapless family members of the criminal so fingered. The Bakassi Boys took no prisoners, hence there was no imprisonment, just gulags of the condemned awaiting execution. All that needed to happen was for one to be accused as a suspected criminal, and as swiftly as the accusation, the "criminal" was condemned and promptly executed, regardless of the veracity of the accusation, or the nature of the crime. It is alleged that the Bakassi Boys were also used by Kalu to settle personal scores, subjugate his opponents and strike fear into the indigenes of the state in the manner of his military dictator friends in the 1980s and 1990s.

To clean up Nigeria's image, as regards human rights abuses, in the international community, the Obasanjo government demanded that the vigilante group be disbanded, there began Kalu's loathing of Obasanjo. This became a full blown "front-page" smear attack when the Bakassi Boys were declared an illegal group and banned by the Federal Government of Nigeria. Kalu's vitriol increased, casting aspersions and making spurious accusations and loudmouth claims, touting his supposed influence and roiling in a characteristic classless, indecorous and self-righteous manner.

There has been an EFCC probe for a while now on how Kalu has been systematically looting the Abia state coffers, but he has been hiding behind the immunity provision in the constitution. It is alleged that members of his immediate family are involved in the systematic fraud and so they have also been under scrutiny. Last week's indictment of his mother and eighteen others is a fall out of this. Rather than respect the law, Kalu is shielding his mother from interrogation by the EFCC. This of course is typical and expected of the opportunistic conniver that is Kalu. It is alleged that plans are underway to smuggle his mother out of the country through Cameroun, while he has filed an injunction against the indictment in a court in Umuahia.

Here is a man who brought in a vigilante group to wreck mayhem on petty criminals and innocents alike, now seeking redress from the court denied the many souls, guilty and innocent alike, who were brutally murdered by the Bakassi Boys without a prayer. Kalu, would you rather the Bakassi Boys be let loose on you and your mother, or face the EFCC indictment? If you, your mother and cohort have your noses clean, the honorable thing to do (not that you are being accused of being honorable) is to let the law take its course.

Nigerian States' Government Houses - Cesspools of Corruption

It must be a tough job for the operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). In the past couple of years under the leadership of Nuhu Ribadu, the commission has built a reputation of efficacy and irreproachability. They have gone after big wig fraudsters including the notorious $245 million Brazilian bank scam, governors indicted in acts of embezzlement, an Inspector General of Police and now the Vice President. The stature of the perpetrators the commission has gone after tells of its sterling quality and professionalism.

In the dark ages of IBB and Abacha, the existence of such a commission would have been just to subjugate the common folk and perceived enemies of the dictatorships, especially since the dictators themselves were steeped in institutional corruption, systematically and deliberately looting the coffers of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Indeed, these dark ages of Nigerian history saw entrenched a culture of corruption and blatant disregard of law and order such that it was expected of a government or private official in all institutions across the land to extort, embezzle and commit frank acts of fraud for self-enrichment at the detriment of the populace who they serve. In fact, one popular refrain during these dictatorships was - "use what you have to get what you want." This culture spilled over to the first term of the Obasanjo presidency, when we saw various government officials continuing to illicitly enrich themselves through acts of graft.

When the EFCC first came on the scene, many of these grafters thought it was going to be business as usual. They thought their stupendous illicitly acquired wealth would render them untouchable, and those who were governors, were banking on the immunity clause in the May 1999 constitution to protect them from prosecution. How wrong they were. The top echelon of the EFCC has proved to be irreproachable. Refusing to be sullied by bribery, blackmail or intimidation, they have gone after the biggest fish in the land. This has sent many of the governors running scared, particularly those who would be completing their maximum of two terms in May 2007 and who have been indicted in acts of graft.

Knowing that they have a date with the law, many are trying all sorts of blackmail tactics ranging from slander smears in the press to claims of selective indictments and other sorts of diabolical intrigues. The truth is if these governors are honorable, they would waive their immunity protection and subject themselves to the EFCC probes to prove their noses are clean. Clinton did this in the Monica Lewinski debacle when he was accused of perjury because he denied having sexual relations with the intern, enough to warrant impeachment proceedings against him.

Many Nigerians who hold public positions, as we know, are not honorable and as such it will be unlikely that any of the indicted governors will submit to a probe. To make matters worse many of the state assemblies are in complicity with the governors in perpetrating the acts of graft, rendering it virtually impossible that they would institute impeachment proceedings against their governors. Plateau state is a perfect example of this, with many of the legislators themselves arrested for their own acts of graft separate from the governor's. It will be interesting to see how all this pans out come May 29, 2007, after which the immunity protection of these indicted governors would no longer hold.

Crude Oil, the Bane of Nigeria

Pundits have severally proclaimed that the bane of Nigeria's sociopolitical and economic malaise is crude oil. The tussle to control the vast wealth that spews from beneath the mangroves of the Niger Delta and surrounding territorial waters has been central to all the conflicts that have befallen the country. From the days of Isaac Boro to the Nigerian Civil war, the Babangida and Abacha illegal usurpation of power and the recent onslaught by MOSOP, MEND and the ilk all have been impelled in some form by the hydrocarbon deposits beneath the Niger-Delta.

Add this to the incompetent and avaricious leadership, and a helpless populace and the result is chaos, exactly what we have today in Nigeria. Past and present leaders in Nigeria have abused their positions to engage in blatant acts of fraud and embezzlement, helping themselves to billions of dollars of the proceeds from the sale of the Niger-Delta crude oil. The late Abacha is reputed to have looted $3 billion, and his predecessor, Babangida, about $5 billion as alleged in the popular press. And these are just two out of several hundreds, perhaps thousands, of embezzlers.

Contemporary events in the news indicate that this culture of nauseating corruption is ever more so rife. With the indictment of several high-ranking government officials including incumbent governors, directors, an Inspector General of Police, businessmen and recently, the Vice President, there cannot be a more apt testament to the degree of debasement that the Nigerian polity has fallen to. In this cesspool of corruption, it is not out of place to have the kind of chaos expressed in the form of piracy, kidnapping, extortion, arson and sabotage that we have in the Niger-Delta. Using the pretext of governmental neglect (which is a truism) these criminals in the Niger-Delta wreak mayhem as they maim, murder and kidnap innocent civilians in exchange for ransoms. They couch their criminality in spurious social activism and time and again oil operators and the government fall for this and seek to pacify them by paying their ransom demands.

The solution to all this is simple. First, the Federal government should hunt these criminals down with the utmost force at its disposal, treating the crises strictly as the criminal acts that they are. Then the federal government should divest its interests in the oil sector and squarely concentrate on its role as a regulatory and monitoring body. If the NNPC were dissolved and the Nigerian government seeks its revenues purely through taxation and excise fees and duties then it would be more likely that we have government officials who are more accountable to the populace. It would force the state governments to be more creative about revenue generation rather than be the bottomless pits that they are into which the FGN keeps throwing away monies that are wont to be embezzled by the various state government officials.

Since a very high percentage of Nigerian businesses and individuals avoid or evade taxes, the general attitude is one of apathy towards acts of embezzlement and fraud. Perhaps if all Nigerian individuals and businesses paid their appropriate tax dues they would be more intolerant of gross acts of corruption and criminality perpetrated by various government officials and private citizens across the country, including those miscreants in the Niger-Delta and other hot spots in Nigeria.

Nigerian Leaders Hark! What is the Value of a Man?

Airplane crashes are joltingly painful, especially to friends and relatives of the crash victims, yet, they are poignant reminders of the ephemeral nature of life. Without warning, in a fleeting moment all the substance and stature of the human being is brought to an abrupt and screeching eternal halt. We carp and squabble over money, power, politics, ideologies and things that are of meaningless consequence on the scale of the eternity of time and the infinity of space that makeup life and existence.

For those who died in the September 17, 2006 Army plane crash in Kwande, Benue State , it is the end of all these meaningless carping, squabbling and jostling. All their families and everyone with whom they interacted in the course of their lives have left are memories. The years and efforts put into their jobs and relationships reduced to mere electrical impulses transmitted across the tiny spaces (synapses) between the networks of connections (dendrites) and cells (neurons) that make up the brain and nervous system.

The worth of a man is often dictated by the type of memories we hold of him after he dies. We hold on to these memories cherishing the fond and good ones and trying to forget the not so good. Sometimes, there are those memories that are too grim to forget. Often, these are borne out of the actions or inactions of a man or woman in a given situation. In men who by fate find themselves in positions of authority and leadership, these actions or inactions often have far-reaching and compelling impacts on large sections of the society.

Good leaders often are remembered fondly with feelings of euphoric nostalgia and yearning. Bad leaders are remembered with loathsome bitterness and regret. Often, it is not that the good leader was pristine and perfect through and through, and did not falter or do any bad deeds, or that the bad leader is outrightly evil and did not do any good deed. It is the degree of these deeds and the level and type of impact (negative or positive) the deeds have on the society that determines a good or bad leader. On this scale, Hitler was most certainly an evil and bad leader. There is no question also that Abacha, Mobutu and Idi-Amin likewise were bad leaders who left indelible negative memories in societies which they led. In the same vein, Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Ghandi are undoubtedly two of the greatest leaders of the 20th century.

Understandably, most leaders fall between the two extreme types of leaders given that one would expect a stochastic distribution of types of leaders. For some reason, Nigeria seems to have a more than disproportionate share of leaders of the Mobutu and Abacha ilk, perhaps because years of despotic and dehumanizing reign of military dictatorship has inured Nigerians to the anguish of bad leadership. Being on the left tail of the normal distribution for so long has warped the reasoning of the average Nigerian to the extent that he justifies acts that are flat out wrong and deplorable by flimsy self-serving strange, if not moronic logic.

Nigerian leaders would do well to strive to leave more positive impacting memories on the citizenry that they lead by doing good deeds and staying within the ambits of the law as they dispatch their responsibilities. Take the case of the late Finance director of INEC, who led a lie as a pastor while looting the government coffers to the tune of 7 billion Naira. Surely that individual has left an indelible negativity in the collective memories of Nigeria , likewise has Tafa Balogun, ex IG of Police and many other leaders in Nigeria . It would not be inaccurate to say that such Nigerians have led worthless and destructive lives. And for those who believe in life after death, the damnation is double barreled. Not only are the memories they leave behind forever seen as profane and despicable, these individuals are equally self-condemned to eternal damnation as defined by any of the major creeds in Nigeria that they are likely to belong. In the end, the true value of a man is measured by how many lives one has impacted positively and not how much wealth he amassed.

It is worthless to acquire wealth without impacting peoples’ lives positively with it, and even worse to acquire wealth illegally as many Nigerian leaders do. The world’s two richest people Bill Gates and Warren Buffet realize this and are giving back to the world almost all their wealth through philanthropy. These indeed are two great men and big men of the kind never seen in Nigeria.

The writer of this article pays his respect to the 13 people who lost their lives in the Military aircraft crash last Sunday and pray that their families find the strength to bear the loss. Were Nigeria a well run society perhaps this might not have happened. Perhaps the army would have had newer aircrafts with better trained pilots and air traffic control staff. Perhaps there would have been a well structured emergency response procedure in place and rescue teams to rendered adequate and prompt help immediately after the crash. But that is if only governors, presidents, directors, vice presidents, legislators, civil servants and private and corporate executives would stop looting millions of dollars and pounds to acquire homes in Europe and America and fund profligate life styles. Until all the brigandage stops, Nigerians unfortunately would be bereft of the true value of life.

Nigerian Presidency 2007 - “Kingibe, the Dark Horse?”

Ambassador Babagana Kingibe’s declaration to vie for the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) last Thursday is yet another punt in the political game leading up to the 2007 Nigerian presidential election. Kingibe could not have come out at a more auspicious time. Had he made his intention known earlier than now, he probably would have been marked for cavil and calumny by other aspirants who had made theirs known (tacit or overt) long ago. Babangida and Atiku, two who had, are under the scrutiny of every Nigerian and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and deservedly so, given the huge wealth both individuals have purportedly amassed allegedly by virtue of their positions in government.

With both men stewing in the morass of the Petroleum Development Trust Fund (PDTF) and the Globacom deals, it is hard to see how either man will escape unscathed by the time the dust settles on these allegations. If the case of impropriety and frank fraud either man is accused of is proven, then disqualification from vying for the presidency will be the least of their problems. There appears to be some veracity in the allegations though, as the key conduit, Adenuga, through whom the illicitly acquired wealth is alleged to have been laundered is at large, having fled to Ghana over a fortnight ago to escape interrogation by the EFCC.

There have been speculations of a dark horse in the PDP fold, one believed to have the blessing of Mr. Obasanjo and who enjoys some sort of local and international regard and acclaim, and not tainted with allegations of corrupt self-enrichment. Mr. Kingibe seems to fit this profile and may indeed be the dark horse if there ever was one. He is currently a special OAU envoy in Sudan and was a one time chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the early 1990s. Kingibe was also the running mate to the late MKO Abiola, the widely acclaimed winner of the aborted June 12, 1993 presidential elections.

This may count for some political leverage with the western Nigerian electorate. Even though it should not matter, being from the same “geopolitical zone” as Atiku gives him some regional acceptability as well as deals a dilutory blow to the Atiku political machinery. Kingibe is a charismatic orator, with a good command of the English language and a keenly developed diplomatic mien evident in the way he responds to questions and comments. He has also cultivated a grassroots and populist following and so belongs to that rare breed of Nigerian political elites who enjoy the sincere patronage and trust of the common-folk.

The Kingibe candidacy is one that will be keenly watched particularly since majority of the other possible candidates come from the fold of the present PDP governors, most of whom according to the EFCC, are involved in some acts of gross abuse of power or graft. Added to this, none of these PDP governors enjoys as wide a followership as Kingibe. Which ever way this goes, Kingibe and his supporters would have to court the PDP echelon and party stalwarts from the South-south and south-east to get their backing since both regions have vowed to wrest power come 2007.

Atiku's Bundle

In developed societies where the rule of law, order and decorum prevail, the right thing for any public office holder indicted in acts of impropriety or abuse of office is to resign. Over and over again we have seen this happen in the USA and Britain. Only last week, the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair announced that he would be leaving office next May because his party has lost confidence in his leadership. The US defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has tendered his resignation several times in the last couple of years because of popular criticism of his handling of the US invasion of Iraq, only to be turned down by President Bush. Even though the cases leveled against these two men are not gross acts of corruption, Blair and Rumsfeld understand the import of loss of confidence in a public officer by the populace.

Atiku has been accused not only of complicity in misuse of power but the outright abuse of power and perpetration of acts of gross corruption by the systematic manner in which the Petroleum Development Trust Fund (PDTF) under his control was used to fund various shady deals ranging from the iGate/NDTV deal to the Marine Float and Globacom deals. The fall out of these is still unraveling. Only on Friday, September 8, 2006 the head of iGate, Mr. Vernon Jackson a Kentucky, USA businessman, was sentenced to an 87 months jail term, plus 2 years probation upon completion of the jail term by U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis in Alexandria, Virginia. William Jefferson, the US congressman linked in the iGate bribery scheme with Atiku is under FBI investigation. Mr. Mike Adenuga, the conduit through whom Atiku is alleged to have purchased shares in Globacom with PDTF funds expropriated by Atiku for that purpose, has fled Nigeria for Ghana en-route to England to join his twenty-something year old sons, executive officers in Globacom and who also had earlier fled Nigeria to escape investigation by the EFCC.

These charges are serious and not to be taken lightly. In what appears to be a bold-faced attempt of self preservation, Atiku has gone to court to seek an injunction to stop the report of the findings of investigations of these allegations from being tabled before the National Assembly. In addition, he has gone further to claim that the monies paid into the accounts of his company, Marine Float Limited, was under the joint control of him and President Obasanjo as the monies were meant to be used for the Obasanjo/Atiku reelection campaign. If indeed this was the intended use of the monies how come they were not held in an appropriately named account? Why was the account not under the control of the PDP? What does the paper trail as regards the outflow of monies from the account reveal? Were expenses incurred for the Obasanjo/Atiku reelection campaign paid out from the account or was the account used to fund private projects of Atiku’s or Obasanjo’s? These are questions to which answers can be easily obtained through forensic accounting.

Atiku acknowledges that 100 million naira was paid by the Plateau state governor, Joshua Dariye to Marine Float towards the Obasanjo/Atiku reelection in August 2001, two years before the 2003 reelection. The question that arises here is: - Is there any legal grounds on which a state governor is permitted to make such a contribution from the coffers of his state to the presidential campaign? None exists the last time I checked. On this ground alone, the Vice President is liable, along with the governor of Plateau state, who as we know, is a fugitive of the British justice system, having jumped bail in 2004 in London to escape charges of money laundering. For all we know Dariye and Atiku may have been in cahoots in looting the coffers of the state and the 100 million naira was Atiku’s share. Or perhaps Atiku used the Marine Float account to fraudulently obtain monies from donors by intimidation using the Obasanjo/Atiku reelection as a cover. Either way, Atiku is clearly at abeyance with the law with the Marine Float Limited affair.

Undoubtedly, Atiku and Babangida played pivotal roles in the 1999 election of Obasanjo as president. It is unlikely that Obasanjo could have mustered the resources and support he enjoyed in the campaign leading up to his nomination as the PDP candidate and his eventual election as president without the roles played by these two individuals. That however does not render them untouchable or immune to investigation to the extent that there are questions about their conducts in business and as high level officers of the Federal Government of Nigeria.

The world over and throughout history, people in public leadership positions are expected to conduct their affairs beyond reproach. As William Shakespeare put it, “Ceaser’s wife must be above suspicion.” But you don’t automatically attain this just by virtue of your leadership position, it is something that is earned through personal conduct and actions, and which can be easily cross-referenced in its transparency. If indeed they are beyond reproach, Atiku, his supporters and business partners (Adenuga in particular) should be forthwith with the truth and allow for the proper proceedings to take its course rather than cry wolf and make accusatory statements and recriminations to garner undeserved ill-willed sentiments against the investigators, the Federal Executive Council and President Obasanjo.

It is hoped that when the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Human Rights and Legal Matters finally comes out with its guidelines on procedures on the deliberation of the report which has been tabled before it with a letter from the president that the senators dispatch their duties without bias and partisanship.

“NUHU RIBADU: LET HE WHO IS WITHOUT GUILT CAST THE FIRST STONE.” - Rejoinder to Akinsanya Juliuson

It is unclear what Akinsanya Juliuson was trying to say in his special feature of September 11, 2006 on the nigeriannews.com website, titled: - “NUHU RIBADU: LET HE WHO IS WITHOUT GUILT CAST THE FIRST STONE.” The article, from my perspective, was a Hodgepodge of banal Nigerian sayings and incoherent ramblings and philosophizing of what appears to be Juliuson’s perception of life.

Was Juliuson trying to make allusions to the EFCC chairman’s conduct in his execution of his duties? Was he extolling or excoriating them? From the title, one may deduce that Juliuson was probably doing the latter, but like the typical Nigerian politician, Juliuson was cryptic in his pronouncements, which were interspersed with “biblical rhetoric” to suffuse some element of piety in the write up. He claims that he does not judge people, but Juliuson’s article seemes to be warning the EFCC chairman to tone down his activities or face some damnation. “Man is such a harsh judge. We so readily want our own indiscretions and mistakes to be over looked, but seldom are willing to overlook someone else's. Why does it sometimes seem as if we revel in the chance to find fault in others? Is it because we feel better about our own shortcomings when we compare them to those who are more obviously flawed?” Juliuson writes. Is he making reference to Ribadu’s knack for saying it as it is not caring the “status” of the person under investigation?

Juliuson also continues: - “Honesty is not the best policy in Nigeria of today. Sensitivity is. Some people are born insensitive, some achieve insensitivity and others have insensitivity thrust upon them. This is not the right quotation. But I am sure we all know why I make that remark now. We are dealing with several silly someones, several brood of vipers.” Obviously Juliuson condones dishonesty, acts of criminality and gross corruption that the EFCC is trying to excise from the Nigerian polity. Juliuson should know that the law is no respecter of social status. Criminals, regardless of their status are prosecuted if investigated and found wanton. One thing Juliuson must understand is that as a commission set up to combat corruption, the EFCC has the statutory obligation to prosecute all those found to be wanton in their investigations. All the commission does is argue the case before a judge, who, based on the evidence provided by the commission, and the argument of put forth by the defendant decides the case.

It is true that the default in law is "innocent until proven guilty" and this is upheld by the prosecution process followed by the EFCC. But that aside, come on Juliuson, how much is the salary of these so called “persecuted” that they live the profligate lifestyles that they lead? Alamieyesiegha’s salary as governor was not denominated in pounds and dollars, and even if it was, it was hardly so much so that he could afford to keep one million pounds in the house he bought in London only a few years ago when he became governor. Besides, Alamieyeseigha was apprehended by the British police, an unbiased and autonomous organization.

If the Atiku/Adenuga case is what sparked Juliuson’s article, let it be known that the case is connected to the US congressman, Jefferson’s saga, which has been under the FBI investigation for a while now, and that the evidence provided in the report was collated through an international joint effort between the FBI and the EFCC. It is no secret that Adenuga (purported whiz kid) has been a conduit through whom a number of Nigerian present and past leadership have funneled funds looted from the coffers of Nigeria since the mid 1980s.

To use one of the banal Nigerian sayings that Juliuson omitted in his incoherent write-up, “let us call a spade a spade.” The EFCC has been doing an excellent job since the young man; Ribadu has been at the helm. The commission deserves, from all Nigerians, the highest praise and respect. The most tendered reservation people have of the commission is that it has gone after some highly placed members of the society, and that these folks do not deserve to be investigated and interrogated. Well, if there is some question about the source of wealth of these individuals, particularly if their gross remuneration while they held government positions are insufficient to afford them their level of wealth, investigating them is the only way to clear up the discrepancy.

The one thing that Juliuson seemed to get right is that the EFCC chairman, in his stoic and committed manner of delivery of his duties, is putting himself and family at great personal danger given the degree of influence and vindictive capabilities of the individuals he is going after. But this is the hallmark of a brave and valiant man in the battle against corruption. By being reticent and condoning depravity and corruption, and sweeping it under the carpet, as recommended by Juliuson, the EFCC or any other agency charged with the job of combating corruption would be tantamount to selling its soul, as Juliuson seems to have done in the name of his incoherent and grossly erroneous notion of what he thinks “decorum” should be.

Alamieyeseigha the Ignominious

The Alamieyeseigha case is such a sad one. Now the man claims to be ill and requires treatment abroad. On top of that he claims his dastardly escape was orchestrated by the Metropolitan Police of London. How morally bankrupt and shameless can one be? Rather than be contrite for his debased acts, this man stands bold-facedly and lies about the circumstances surrounding his escape. He was reported to have boasted about having supernatural powers and attributed his bail jump to this.

That Alamieyeseigha is ill is probably true. All you need do is look at the monstrosity of a man to arrive at the conclusion that there must be something physiologically amiss with the sorry sod. But it is anyone’s guess that the ailment that befalls him stems from years of self abuse and overindulgence. Folks of Alamieyeseigha’s crass ilk, commonly referred to as “bushmen” in Nigerian colloquialism are wont to overindulge, self abuse and break the law all in some ill-informed perception of “enjoying themselves” whereas all they are doing is exhibiting there classlessness and denigrating their personal health.

As for the accusation that the Metropolitan police aided his escape, Alamieyeseigha is only exhibiting his low intelligence and confirming what a pathological lair he is, and the extent of his depravity and moral bankruptcy. Having ascended to office and perpetuated himself in the Bayelsa government house through acts of cavil, intrigue and boldfaced criminality, Alamieyeseigha does not know better to appreciate that on the world stage, such dingy parochial machinations do not hold. He is better served to accept that he is nothing but a common criminal whose low mental capacity and egregious avarice have led him to his present situation.

Recently, he has claimed to be ill and require medical attention abroad. The medical attention he claims to currently need could easily be rendered in Nigeria if only he and his thieving ilk would use public funds at their control to provide good schools and hospitals, and other social amenities they are supposed to provide rather that steal the monies. At least as a detainee, Alamieyeseigha is availed of specialist medical attention in Nigeria. How many of his fellow detainees accused of lesser crimes have the same privilege? For a man who in no small way has contributed to the deplorable situation of Nigerian social amenities through his acts looting and gross corruption, Alamieyeseigha is asking for too much.

Many a petty thief, driven by hunger and abject and wanton poverty, lost their lives in Yenagoa through lynching and jungle justice for stealing as little as a few hundred naira’s worth of items while Alamieyeseigha was governor of the state stealing hundreds of millions of naira, pounds and dollars. His acts of graft and outright theft of government funds no doubt have caused untold hardship, hunger, suffering, degeneration of social values and even death because of the lack of social infrastructure and amenities that would have been provided by the funds he looted. Alamieyeseigha should stop being a big cry-baby coward and accept his fate like the common criminal that he is.

Brilliant, Bold & Visionary

As the curtains close on yet another adventure in the Nigerian quest for nationhood, the political arena is becoming more and more frenzied and perturbed. Many politicians are scheming, forging alliances and making nice with the powers-that-be and the electorate to position themselves in the right light for the 2007 elections. Already, there are reports of violence, assassinations, intimidation and back-stabbing.

What makes the 2007 elections critical is all the events that have played out since 1999 when Obasanjo was elected president. Successes include the completion and implementation of the wireless telecommunication licenses, formation of EFCC and last year’s $18 billion Paris club debt relief. Topical issues tabled in both houses of the legislature include furniture allowance, impeachment of a couple of senate presidents and the speaker of the house, impeachment threats made by both houses of the legislature to the president over issues including disputes over appropriation bills among others. We have had a couple of governors arrested both abroad and at home over corruption and murder allegations, assassination of the attorney general of the federation, trials of Abacha henchmen, a couple of plane crashes, dissolution of various federal government parastatals and the formation of equally ineffective ones. We have seen the escalation of violence, hostage taking and terrorism in the Niger-Delta. Also, we have witnessed the recently scuttled “third-term agenda” being fomented and dealt a death blow by the senate.

In addition to these, we have seen the price of crude oil, Nigeria’s primary foreign exchange earner soar to as high as $75 per barrel and more. More money now accrues to the federation account and by induction more resources are available to the state and local governments which all get their sustenance from the federal government allocations they periodically get. Hence there is more agitation by all the local and state governments across the land, especially those in the oil producing regions, for more money to be allocated to them.



Against this backdrop it is no wonder that many career politicians are jostling for power in order to control this windfall of resources that are accruing to the Nigerian government as a result of high oil prices. There is absolutely nothing wrong in vying for election since it is the right of every Nigerian. What is wrong is to do so with the intent to defraud the Nigerian populace through embezzlement and gross acts of abuse of authority as have been the case with many present and past elected and self-imposed leadership. What Nigeria does not need are the green-eyed monsters of the Abacha ilk with sticky fingers, dubious intent and vile hearts. What Nigeria needs in the coming years are men and women of substance who are brilliant enough to understand what makes good governance, bold enough to stand up to proponents of the status quo where graft, nepotism, tribalism and injustice prevail, and visionary enough to chart a new course for the Nigerian Nation.

Niger-Delta Crude Oil Source a la Sonny Odogwu

“Money miss road” is a popular pejorative in Nigeria used to describe those to whom wealth seems to have come undeservedly. In a society that measures the worth of a man by how much wealth he has amassed regardless of the means of acquisition, integrity or substance of his mind, this cliché it seems is out of place. A few days ago, one of these “money miss roads,” Sonny Odogwu, is credited to have made some arcane and ill-informed statements of the source of crude oil in the Niger-Delta. He is said to have proclaimed that the oil reservoirs in the Niger-Delta are fed by underground tributaries with sources in North Africa, and that if Northern Nigerians were greedy that they could stanch this flow since the tributaries run through the Northern part Nigeria as they course southward to fill the reservoirs in the Niger-Delta.

How bizarre, this theory! One wonders how Mr. Odogwu arrived at this convoluted and erroneous theory. It boggles the mind that a man of Mr. Odogwu’s stature can make such an out rightly wrong statement. He definitely has a very creative and vivid imagination and would be better served contriving fictional stories for “Nollywood” rather than making commentaries on issues he is grossly uninformed about. This only goes to show how shallow and unenlightened the so called Nigerian elites of Mr. Odogwu’s ilk are.

Crude oil, as any lay person who bothers to check would find, results from millions of years of marination under pressure of dead organic matter of plant and animal origin, and microscopic marine organisms that have been trapped under the earth's crust. It follows therefore that these reservoirs in the Niger-Delta were in place long before the existence of the entity called Nigeria and certainly long before the very first human settlers in the Niger-Delta. To posit that crude oil flows from North Africa to the Niger-Delta is not only grossly erroneous and misleading but shows the mental substance of Mr. Odogwu. He is well advised to in future do some research before giving interviews, or keep mum on subjects of which he is ignorant.

The Warped Logic of Zoning the Presidency

I just read an article in the Nigerian Tribune of June the 24^th 2006 by Jacob Segun Olatunji & Bankole Makinde titled “South South May Boycott the Elections.” It tries to surmise the reason why the so called leaders of the “south-south” geopolitical zone want all the 37 registered political parties to field a south-southern candidate. Their reason is that the north has produced the president or head of state for 34 of the 45 years of Nigerian independence and therefore it is the turn of the south-south geopolitical region to produce the next president. Anything less, they say, they will boycott the 2007 elections. Let’s try to decompose the reasoning behind this proposition.

If the current political dispensation is a democracy, is imposing such a demand not tantamount to blackmail and hijacking the democratic process? Subscribing to such a formula of zoning is only a perpetuation of regional, sectional and ethno-centric politics that has bedeviled the system and stunted development in Nigeria for decades now. Would it not be better for the president to be elected based on merit rather than zoning or ethno-centricism? That way, there is no sense of entitlement, and we know we truly have the people’s choice in office rather than a compromise president whose ascension to power is just because he is from a particular zone of Nigeria. All progressive peoples of the world would agree that this is a regressive and tribalistic approach to democracy.

Proponents of this formula subscribe to it because they assume that there are some benefits that would accrue to the region from which the president comes. This goes to suggest that the president who is supposed to be nationalistic and impartial would favour his ethnic or regional ilk over other Nigerians. Would such a president not be unfair, perhaps even criminal?

The only traits that should matter in the next president are integrity, vision and intellect. The region from which the president comes should not even arise. The Nigerian entity would only truly be democratic when the so called “leaders of thought” and old brigade ethnocentric tribalistic politicians and their protégées stop taking the Nigerian people for a ride by playing up ethnic and sectional sentiments whenever it suits their political ends.

Third Term Bid Dead, But not yet Uhuru for Nigerians

Kudos to the few members of the Nigerian Senate and National Assembly opposed to the third term bid for thwarting the attempt to impose on the good people of Nigeria the ill-intentioned will of a powerful minority of politicians in the fold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in particular the PDP Chairman, Ahmadu Ali, Chief Aneni and other higher echelon party stalwarts. This goes to show that there might be some hope for democracy after all in Nigeria. Amidst threats of excommunication from the party, amongst other methods of intimidation, these members of the legislative arm of government have nevertheless been able to uphold the will of the common masses of Nigeria.

Obasanjo’s address yesterday morning asking that the Nigerian people accept the decision of the senate and national assembly not to amend the constitution to increase the two term limit of elected executive government officials to three strikes any discerning observer as an acceptance of defeat by the president and his cohort. It confirms everyone’s suspicion that the bid for the third term, if not orchestrated by Obasanjo, at least had the consent of the president. To have remarked earlier that he would make his decision to run for a third term known only if there was a constitutional amendment indicates that Obasanjo had perhaps been nursing the idea of holding on to power after the completion of his second term in 2007. Well, the senate has spared him the trouble, and made the decision for Obasanjo. He will not be vying for election in 2007

Power indeed corrupts absolutely. Obasanjo practically had power handed over to him in 1999, having been released from prison in late June of 1998 clueless and disheveled; he was groomed and sold to the Nigerian people as a consensus candidate. Despite his gross unpopularity in Southern Nigeria (especially in Southwestern Nigeria), he was able to win the elections largely because of the support he got from the Northern politicians, in particular from what was then dubbed the Yar-Adua political machine headed up by Abubakar Atiku, hence the latter’s nomination as Obasanjo’s running mate. One wonders therefore why Obasanjo and Atiku seem to have fallen out despite the latter’s pivotal role in securing the presidency for the former. But of course politics in Nigeria, and indeed the world over, is a game of deceit, betrayal, intrigue and back-stabbing. Perhaps there was a pact that Atiku will take over from his boss after the second term. The third term bid was clearly an impediment to such a pact, if indeed it existed.

Now that it is clear that Obasanjo is not eligible to vie for the presidency in 2007, the road is clear for Atiku. Alas it is not yet Uhuru for Nigerians. Let’s allow conjecture to run wild a little here. If Atiku were to inherit the presidency from his boss should Nigerians expect any real difference in the quality of governance? Probably not. No doubt, all the ardent Obasanjo men and apologists would be relieved of their positions, shooed from the Rock and replaced with the new president’s men and apologists. There would be window dressing hither and thither, but the DNA of the Nigerian way of governance would remain intact. No one should expect any patent difference in the way business is conducted in Aso Rock and the two legislative chambers. Horse trading will still go on, calumny, cavil and intrigue will continue to prevail. Threats of impeachment and appeasement by monetary awards and bribery will continue. It will be business as usual so long as a large proportion of the class of 2007 legislators or their protégées transform to the class of 2011 legislators and worse if Atiku acts true to type and enfranchise corruption as have been variously alleged in the popular press media. Alas, it’s not yet Uhuru for Nigerians.

Constitutional Amendment Proceedings – The Senators’ Biggest Job Interview Yet.

The constitutional amendment finally tabled before the senate last week is sure to spark an interesting debate. Among the issues for deliberation are a proposal to create more states, derivation formula, rotational presidency and term limit change amongst others. Of the one hundred and sixteen proposals for deliberation, the matter of term limit amendment is anticipated to generate the most controversy and tension in the proceedings. Thus far, about twenty nine senators have lent their voices to deliberations on the matter and while some have made clear statements on their stand on the matter, others are tongue-in-check and equivocal.

It is no surprise that this is so since senators are politicians, whose stock in trade is double speak, and prevarication. Added to this is the allegation that some persons representing incumbent chiefs executive of the states and the powers that be in Aso Rock are lobbying these senators and making offers of gifts of millions of Naira, some of which have been purportedly paid into the bank accounts of these senators in Abuja. If this is true, then what we have is a situation where these tongue-in-cheek senators are either dancing to the tune of the piper, or signaling to the agents of the chiefs executive their availability for sale by dithering on the issue.

The proceeding is being televised live by the African Independent Television Network, giving the Nigerian populace instantaneous updates. Some people have requested that this be disallowed as it might hamper some senators from taking their true positions. How can this be? The amendment of the constitution is an epoch making event in the life of democracy in Nigeria, and as such, it is only proper to capture it live and on audio-visual record for posterity. It is suspected that those who advocate for a media-blackout want this for ulterior motives. Without live update and public scrutiny enabled by the live television coverage, proponents of the third term think they might be able to engineer the outcome of the proceedings in their favour.

As Abraham Lincoln remarked in his November 19, 1863 Gettysburg address, democracy is the “government of the people, by the people for the people.” The Nigerian people, for whom the Nigerian government is constituted, and whose representatives make up the Nigerian senate, have every right to be updated in real time what their representatives are deliberating on, and how properly they are being represented. In fact, there should be more television stations covering the proceedings to increase the reach and improve the openness and “transparency” of the process. It is the biggest job interview yet for the senators, so it would serve them well to be on their best behaviour.

How they comport themselves and vote will determine what path their political careers will take. The sellouts will most likely lose their seats in the next elections, if the electorate is discerning enough, having failed to do the bid of their constituencies and therefore botching the job interview that the constitutional amendment is. Let us hope that the senators keep this in perspective as they deliberate on the term limit and the one hundred and fifteen other proposals before them.

"Who the Cap Fits" all Over Again.

In the last days of the draconian Abacha regime, there was a sham of an advertorial ran by all the major television stations (NTA and private) and Newspapers captioned: “Who the Cap Fits.” In the montage, there was a military cap morphing into an embroidered traditional northern Nigerian cap (fula) or a southern Nigerian cap (fila abeti aja) to the tagline - "Who the Cap Fits." It was all a tasteless attempt by the Abacha regime to sell the Abacha candidacy to the Nigerian populace, never minding that 99.99% of Nigerians were disgusted by the ploy and the rogue general.

The Abacha regime was so out of touch with the populace that the general requested that all religious leaders and followers across the land gathered in Abuja to pray for the Nigerian nation and the general himself. Well, God it seemed answered the prayers of this multitude of Nigerians. On June 8, 1998, the best thing that could have happened to Nigeria under the circumstances did. The 54 year-old tyrant suffered a heart attack and died. His machinations to transform from a military dictator to a civilian dictator never came to fruition.

The third term being canvassed for the Obasanjo regime is reminiscent of the sham that characterized Abacha's last year in office. Just as there was no sincerity and justice then, it is clear that proponents of the third term bid share the same warped vision as did the lackeys of Abacha. What is even more arcane is the fact that President Obasanjo, who was imprisoned by Abacha along with Shehu Musa Yar' Adua and others who were against the self perpetuation bid of Abacha, is keeping mum as all the crass politicking and moral dishonesty is going on. This lends great credence to the perception of most that Obasanjo is indeed behind all these and is interested in perpetuating himself in power.

The Abdulsalami Abubakar government that released Obasanjo from prison could easily have decided to leave him in prison and not care about the delivery of justice. Abdulsalami Abubakar could easily have decided to hold on to power and not institute the political process that ensued and eventually led to Obasanjo being elected as the president of Nigeria despite the fact that he was highly unpopular in certain sectors of Nigeria.

President Obasanjo is surely taking the wrong turn in history by allowing his lackeys to scheme for a third term for him. The signs are there that this is not only an immoral and unjust scheme, but a very unpopular and dangerous one. It is highly likely to lead to violent and prolonged civil strife between those for and against the bid, in which several tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Nigerians would lose their lives and many more their livelihood and homes. Is a term of 4 more years really worth the risk of this happening? Even if the argument for a third term can be justified, should not the present executive office holders be exempted from benefiting from the proposed constitutional amendment so as to remove any bias from the process? This is especially so since when they were elected into office, there was a term limit of two prescribed by the constitution, which they all swore to uphold.

If Obasanjo truly loves Nigeria as he claims he does should he not come out and make a definitive statement saying that he is not interested in a third term to put paid to all the dissonance in the Nigerian polity? At 70 years of age, Obasanjo is an old man who should be retired and taking things easy. Ruling Nigeria must be tasking for one so advanced in age. Should not a younger person be there at the helm to breathe freshness and vitality into the office? Obasanjo has done a great job in getting Nigeria into the world stage as evident in the $18 billion debt forgiveness he negotiated for the country last year. The EFCC is doing a phenomenal job. This is the time to leave the stage, when the ovation is loudest. By staying an extra 4 years with so many people opposed to the bid, all the good that have been associated with Obasanjo will be eroded and the question then will be: “Who Does the Cap of the Greatest Nigerian Despot Fit?”

Ali - Democrat or Zombie?

Senator Ahmadu Ali, the PDP National chairman is reputed to have mandated party leaders and members of the National Assembly and Senate elected under the PDP umbrella to back the third term agenda or leave the party. If this is true, and PDP is an acronym for Peoples Democratic Party, then one is right to ask the question: who indeed should leave the party?

PDP is a democratic entity and not the property of one individual. What makes a democracy is the right of choice and freedom of association. Democracy has been touted as the raison d'etre of the PDP. One can not proclaim to be a democrat while at the same time lead by decrees and orders. If indeed the PDP National chairman, who is supposed to be the embodiment of the party made such a statement should that not be enough grounds for impeaching him?

Ali should appreciate that in a democracy no one has the right to coerce people into making a choice they are not in agreement with. These are not military times. Ali spent the greater part of his adult life as a soldier, and having served under the Murtala/Obasanjo led regime of the 1970s perhaps still has that soldier boy mentality of blind loyalty. The kind immortalized in Fela Anikulapo-Kuti's song - "Zombie." Thanks to the death of Abacha and the dictates of the times the zombies have been sent back to the barracks where they belong in times of peace.

Undoubtedly, there are many ex-military men playing the Nigerian political field right now and it is only fair to let them do so in the burgeoning Nigerian democracy since they represent a stakeholder group in the Nigerian polity. That however does not bestow on them the audacity or right to dictate and impose their will on the rest of Nigerians. When power has been given to the people, it is "one man one vote." Ali's vote does not carry anymore weight than any other Nigerian's just like Obasanjo's does not weigh more than a talakawa's.

The common Nigerian to whom power belongs should not be bullied into doing Ali’s will. The office of the chairman of the PDP should represent the entire cross section of opinions of all Nigerians and not just those of the professional sycophants, who inspite of the fact that President Obasanjo has not explicitly said that he wants a third term are unjustly and insidiously slowly ingraining the idea into the Nigerian polity, distracting from other more beneficial salient issues.

Ali should be a true democrat and allow people to air their opinions. As difficult as this may be for a man who wore a Khaki uniform for most of his career, having traded his Khaki for a Babanriga, Ali should stop acting like a zombie and learn some political etiquette.

Nigerian Nazi Groups

The Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) is unequivocally a secessionist group, just as well are OPC and MOSOP. Supporting such groups or sympathizing with their cause is tantamount to treasonable felony as described by the law of the land. The Nigerian civil war, fought almost 40 years ago was a senseless frenzy of blood letting resulting in the death of over one million Nigerians on both sides of the war. And it was all as a result of tribalist sentiments allowed to run wild.

All over Nigeria sectional groups are once again cropping up, all purporting to represent and further the causes of groups that are often described along ethnic, regional or religious grounds. We have the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Afenifere, Egbe Omo Oduduwa, Odua Peoples’ Congress (OPC), Ohaneze Ndiigbo to name the most vociferous ones. All these groups are shamelessly xenophobic and bleat patent bigotry bordering on hatred for ethnic or sectional groups other than theirs. In their rhetoric one discerns the myopia, tribalism and blatant perversion of the commonalities that describe their respective interest groups. Just like Hitler’s Nazi rhetoric, they twist logic and distort the truth in a bid to warp the minds of the common Nigerian for their support. The poor unsuspecting common folk, like the German citizen of the 1930s feeds off these distorted logic and innuendos and the result is catastrophic. Many Nigerian youths have become misguided, paranoid and patently xenophobic; as a result, we have perennial senseless civil strife just like the recent ones in Maiduguri and Onitsha that spread to other parts of Northern and Eastern Nigeria respectively.

If only these tribalists could see beyond their avarice and quest for personal aggrandizement, wealth and power, they would see that there is so much to be gained from peaceful co-existence and diversity. The most advanced and richest nation the world has ever known, the USA, is what it is today because of the degree of diversity of its citizenry and the fact that people are given opportunities to express themselves so long as they exhibit some value-adding talent regardless of race, creed or social class. Most importantly, the rule of law prevails in the USA, and it is applied equitably regardless of status and social position.

The problem with Nigeria today has nothing to do with the various causes for which these rabidly tribalist groups purport to be fighting. It is multi-factored and includes lack of truth and justice, wholesale corruption, gross unenlightenment of the leadership and followership alike, and the abject poverty that has been inflicted on the populace by the devious leadership. By keeping the populace impoverished and uneducated, the ruling class has been able to easily manipulate them for their selfish ends. In the early days of the 3rd republic for example, when it was found that Governor Bola Tinubu had lied about his educational qualifications, Pa Abraham Adesanya, an Afenifere chieftain is credited to have asked members of his tribalist group and affiliates not to launder their dirty linen in public, while the same groups had been so vitriolic in an earlier similar episode involving impeached House Speaker, Salisu Buhari, who had likewise lied about his educational qualification. Such is the double standard applied by these tribalist organizations.

Hitler applied double standard and distorted logic in Nazi Germany and it resulted in the death of about 50 million people worldwide in World War II. These tribalist groups are doing the same thing in Nigeria with the perennial ethnic cleansings that take place every now and then. If the Hausas are not killing the Igbos in Kano or Maiduguri, it is the Yorubas killing the Igbo traders in Lagos, or Fulani cattle herdsmen in Ibadan, or the Igbos killing the Hausa ram sellers in Onitsha, or perhaps the Jukuns killing the Tivs in Taraba state. Is there no respect for the sacredness of human life? Just because a person does not share the same mother-tongue or religious faith as the next does not render the person less human.

Rather than sow seeds of division, hatred, bigotry and xenophobia would not a better Nigeria be engendered if these tribalist leaders came together to confer truthfully and sincerely, without any divisive motives on how best to get Nigeria along the path of economic and social development? Should they not be beating the drums of National patrotism rather than whipping up descriminatory and myopic tribal sentiments which are only destructive to the wellbeing of the people whose cause they purport to be protecting?

These tribalist and sectional groups are regressive and should be eschewed by all progressive Nigerians who would like to see a truly democratic Nigeria where truth and justice are equitably applied.

Niger Delta Hostage Saga

The hostage taking in the Niger Delta has dragged on too long. MEND, or whatever appellation they go by should know that their continual holding of the hostages only serves to highlight their level of depravity and utter lack of political savvy. The government of Obasanjo has been very lenient with these folks and likewise the British and American.

All it will take is a sneak attack by the special forces of Her Majesty's Royal Marines or the US Navy to nix their position and free the hostages. But perhaps for some political reasons, and maybe out of respect for the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the British and Americans have opted to stand down for now. If MEND does not release the hostages and soon too, they may very well be taken out like the common criminals and seadogs that they are.

It is a shame that a band of bandits who are self-confessed criminals can hold Nigeria and indeed the entire global oil industry to ransom the way these individuals have. It boggles the mind even more that President Obasanjo seems preoccupied with all the scheming for a third term to notice that by allowing the situation to prevail and with the continual disruption of oil production in the Niger Delta, the Nigerian government revenue is being decimated, a situation bound to make governance difficult if he gets the third term he is purported to be pursuing.

The expedient thing to do is to organize a covert special commando operation to neutralize MEND and extract the hostages from the throes of this diabolical group. If the Nigerian military forces are not skilled enough to carry this out, the Obasanjo government should enlist the help of the Royal Marines or the US Marines special ops teams.

Allowing MEND to roam the Niger Delta with free rein may sooner attain the criminal group a local folk legendary status and inspire other misguided youth of the Niger Delta and perhaps elsewhere in Nigeria to take up arms at the slightest of grievances. There should be no negotiating with these criminals and terrorists. They should be stamped out with the full might of the Nigerian, British and American military to serve as a deterrent to other misguided youth organizations in the Niger Delta and indeed the entire Nigerian polity that may be harboring similar diabolical ideas.

No Privileges without Responsibility

I was fortunate to have met Eliot Spitzer, the New York Attorney General who is vying for the governorship of the state of New York in the next elections in late 2006. What struck me was the man’s intellect and profound understanding of salient issues, and what need to be done to move the state of New York forward economically and socially. It is no surprise that having been the Attorney General of the state that houses the world’s financial capital since January 1999, and having engaged in and won many battles with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, Mr. Spitzer clearly is a determined and focused social advocate.

He belongs to that rare breed of politicians who understand that profound social changes are best achieved through advocacy by holders of government offices and innovative application of the legal system. He has taken on the world’s largest businesses to reduce environmental pollution, tackled the largest investment banks on Wall Street about their complicity in misleading investors through doctored analyst reports and engendered prescription drug reforms among other things.

Mr. Spitzer attended some of the world’s finest educational institutions, having attended Princeton and the Harvard Law School. Some of the big businesses he has gone after are led by alumni of his alma matter, but this notwithstanding has not deterred him from his pursuit of reform.

The Nigerian polity could do with a few Eliot Spitzers. There is a need for people of high intellect, pristine moral standards and ethical courage to aspire to and ascend political offices. We need to have politicians who are not afraid to tackle corruption and through creative use of the legal system stimulate profound social changes. In order for this to prevail, there is a need to institutionalize ways of imparting ethics in the youth as early on in their lives as possible. There is a need for a situation where people have a clear perception of what is wrong and right, and what is legal and illegal and take responsibility for righting wrongs and setting in motion legal processes to redress illegalities.

It does not make sense for a group of people as vocal as Nigerians to demand truth, justice and fair play but not practice these themselves in every aspect of their lives and in their own little corner of Nigeria. If you demand constant supply of electricity, telecommunication services and clean water, then you must responsibly pay utility bills and not collude with corrupt officers of utility corporations to evade dues. If you demand good roads, public schools and quality health care, you must pay taxes and intelligently question how your taxes are disbursed and spent by public officers. If however you evade taxes and don’t pay utility bills, you truly have no ethical or legitimate grounds on which to demand these services.

There can be no privileges without responsibility. They go hand in hand. If Nigerians irresponsibly allow people of questionable character and competence to ascend to government offices through political apathy, or condone, encourage, perhaps even participate in fraudulent acts such as vote rigging or exchanging votes for money, where lies the legitimate grounds from which to complain.

Many politicians take advantage of the low level of enlightenment and abject poverty that still prevails in Nigeria to manipulate people to achieve their dubious ends. The low level of enlightenment makes it easy for these devious politicians to sow seeds of xenophobia with ethnic, religious and regional flavors. A case in mind is the recent senseless religious unrests in Northern and Eastern Nigeria, particularly in Maiduguri and Onitsha. It cannot be more asinine and patently illogical that innocent lives were lost because some misinformed and misguided individuals were incited by equally unenlightened leaders to riot over cartoons that were published last year in far away Denmark. Undoubtedly most of these rioters have absolutely no idea where Denmark is on the world map.

Why did not the Nigerian security agents act swiftly to quell the attacks? Why did the politicians, especially those with family ties across these religious and ethnic divides not make any public appeals for peace? The Vice President, Atiku, is from Northeastern Nigeria and is married to Titi, from the Southwest. Similarly, ex-head of state, Ibrahim Babangida is a moslem Northerner whose wife, Mariam is from Southeastern Nigeria, and who were both married in a church. Should these ties not be have been highlighted to help douse the riots? Rather, these politicians chose to keep mum. One can almost predict that in the next few weeks there is going to be a deluged of accusations and recriminations about what and who sparked off the riots.

The Obasanjo government should investigate the riots and make arrests of culprits both in Northern and Eastern Nigeria and bring to book guilty parties in these acts of ethnic cleansing as a signal to rioters that such criminal acts will not be tolerated. The truth is there can be no privileges without responsibility. And it's about time Nigerians understand this. People should be held accountable for their actions.

MEND - Non Compos Mentis Gang of Pirates

It is unconscionable and grossly maladroit that the situation in the Niger Delta has been allowed to deteriorate the way it has. We all acknowledge that there are very serious environmental degradation issues facing the people of the region, whose leadership has for so long paid lip-service to the matter and lived fat off the largesse and patronage of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and erring oil companies in return for their reticence and ineptitude. This of cause has resulted in the explosion of activist groups of all ilks, some with legitimate causes and others with illegitimate self-serving agenda.

From MOSOP to MEND, the clarion call has been for supporters to fight against the iniquities perpetrated by the FGN and oil companies in the communities. Countless souls have been lost to the cause, many of whom have been caught in the cross-fire between the FGN and activist groups.

The past few weeks have seen the escalation of frank terrorist acts by MEND in the wake of its spate of attacks on oil installations and kidnappings. The brazenness of these attacks and sophistication of the weaponry employed leaves one to wonder if indeed the Nigerian security agencies are up to the task of keeping peace and law and order in these regions.

The FGN should not stand akimbo and allow the breakdown of law and order to the extent that several of its security agents have been murdered as a result of MEND's seemingly unchallenged ambushes and acts of lawlessness. Even if they indeed have a legitimate cause, by setting fire to oil installations, murdering several Nigerian security agents and innocent civilians alike and kidnapping employees of oil operators, MEND has crossed the line, and no self-respecting government would condone such criminal acts.

MEND has several times admitted that it is a gang of pirates and oil bunkerers. Should the FGN be doing business with criminals? There are intelligence reports that MEND enjoyed the patronage of the impeached Bayelsa state governor, Alamieyeseigha, who bought their peace and quiet by paying protection money to the pirate organization in the name of security vote. In fact, one of MEND's primary demands in its January hostage taking was the release and reinstatement of the impeached and indicted governor.

It is disgraceful to say the least that this gang of a few hundred criminals can hold the FGN and indeed the world oil market to ransom. Their acts have led to the suspension of oil production activities in large sections of the Niger Delta, resulting in substantial reduction in daily national oil output (in excess of 10%) and indeed loss of revenue to the FGN. Allowing MEND free rein to terrorize folks with impunity in the Niger Delta puts the FGN in a bad light. It means that the FGN cannot protect the live and property of its citizens and expatriate workers. With no guarantees of security, economic activities are seriously hampered. The region will continue to suffer its state of abject underdevelopment as no business would invest in the unstable region.

The Niger Delta issue is a delicate one, but this is largely because many of these so called freedom fighters are dishonest, self-serving organizations whose agenda is to extort money from the FGN and oil operators. All one needs to do is ask what MEND and its ilk and affiliates do with all the monies they have over the decades gotten from the oil operators, the FGN and its agencies. The monies are shared amongst the leadership of these spurious groups and their patrons while the innocent indigenes of the Niger Delta are left to suffer the consequences of the environmental degradation that these organizations themselves perpetrate in their acts of sabotage and bunkering, during which they blow up oil pipelines in order to steal oil.

There should be no pretences. The FGN should stop seeking to be politically correct by its inaction while its security agents and innocent citizens are being maimed and murdered in addition to the attendant loss of revenue resulting from the shut down of oil production activities in these troubled regions. The solution, politically unpopular as it may be, is to come down hard on these murderers with maximum force. Route out every single member of these terrorist organizations and bring them to book. At the same time, the FGN should seek to do business with law abiding bonafide environmentalist groups who are genuinely pursuing the Niger Delta cause and not those wreaking havoc and asking for ransoms and billions of dollars in reparation to be paid to their leadership. No one has bothered to ask these pirates how the reparation money they demand would be disbursed to the common Niger Delta folk if the FGN is naive enough to grant their wish.

The FGN set up agencies such as the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and Oil Mineral Producing Area Development Commission (OMPADEC) into which it has poured several billions of dollars to cater to the developmental issues of Niger Delta. These agencies have been headed variously by indigenes of the Niger Delta since their inception in the 1960s, but alas have made little impact because they are replete with corruption. Should not these environmentalist groups in a concerted manner be directing their effort at ensuring that these agencies are properly run rather than perpetrating random acts of terror? Is it not better to garner the support of the international community through advocacy at international fora such as the United Nations assembly, Common wealth of Nations, European Union sessions etc? By their dastardly acts of terror, these belligerent groups deplore the Niger Delta cause, rendering it an unpopular cause to back by influential international environmentalist groups such as Greenpeace International and World Wildlife Fund (WWF), who have the clout to engender lasting change in the region.